“Redistricting could leave Va. with more partisan lawmakers”
Mark Rozell discusses the impact of a redistricting map that pairs incumbents in five Virginia state legislative districts.
“To be safe, Texas Senate again approves political district maps”
Because state law requires redrawing the boundaries in the first regular session after the census data are out … and the COVID delays meant that happened after the 2021 session ended.
“Realignment, More Than Redistricting, Has Decimated Swing House Seats”
Dave Wasserman reignites the forever wars over whether polarization and residential moving patterns or redistricting is more to blame for the drop in competitive congressional seats.
(Just about everyone believes that the answer is that it’s both. The political science… Continue reading
New paper on modeling election outcomes
From Danny Ebanks, Jonathan Katz, and Gary King, comes “If a Statistical Model Predicts That Common Events Should Occur Only Once in 10,000 Elections, Maybe it’s the Wrong Model”:
Political scientists forecast elections, not primarily to satisfy public… Continue reading
“International IDEA introduces online Democracy Tracker tool”
Following developments in democracy and human rights across 173 countries.
“Breakaway candidate could give Erdogan a lifeline in tight Turkey election”
Reuters follows a potential spoiler scenario in Turkey.
Photo ID across the pond
From the Guardian: “Ministers have faced renewed accusations that the plan to impose mandatory photo ID for voting is a waste of time and resources, after statistics showed there was not a single proven case of in-person voter impersonation… Continue reading
Watch Archived Video of the Final Safeguarding Democracy Project Webinar of the Semester, “Confronting the Insider Threat on Election Security and Protecting Election Officials” with Judd Choate and Liz Howard
Great conversation (and here’s the slide deck):
Trump Arraignment Roundup
So that this isn’t eclipsing everything else in your feed, here’s an attempt at a (very partial! and growing!) compilation of pieces focused on analysis of the actual charges. This is, of course, in addition to Rick’s Slate piece… Continue reading
Janet Protasiewicz wins Wisconsin Supreme Court race
And the NYT offers a prediction about the first order of business:
Once Judge Protasiewicz assumes her place on the court on Aug. 1, the first priority for Wisconsin Democrats will be to bring a case to challenge the current… Continue reading
“How Wisconsin became the ‘wild west’ of campaign spending”
Steven Walters writing at Isthmus about the campaign finance landscape behind the state supreme court slugfest.
“Gov. Murphy Signs Law Decried as a ‘Frontal Assault’ on Good Government”
NYT with the report: New Jersey increases contribution limits and, inter alia, cuts off current investigations with a change to the statute of limitations.
More here from nj.com: “Murphy signs controversial N.J. campaign money law after election watchdogs resign … Continue reading
If you bring the polls to where the people are…
They vote. A story on Chicago’s most active precinct (in 2020): the Cook County jail. (The vast majority of people housed at the jail have not yet faced trial, and are eligible to vote.)
“Could Ballot Images Loosen the Grip of Disinformation?”
Steven Rosenfeld discusses an Arizona measure with the backing of both Adrian Fontes and Ken Bennett, which would publicly release registration rolls, voter lists, scanned ballot images, and final electoral tallies. Much of that information is already available (voter rolls… Continue reading