Category Archives: alternative voting systems

“The Instant Runoff Voting Patchwork: Handling Voter Errors and Ballot Length”

Tait Helgaas has written this student comment in the U. Pa. L. Rev. Here is the abstract:

As states and cities across the United States adopt instant runoff voting (IRV) in their constitutions and charters, they enact statutes and ordinances to implement this electoral system. IRV laws vary across jurisdictions, including by how many candidates they allow voters to rank and how they handle voters’ ballot-marking errors. These variations affect both the fraction of ballots disqualified due to voter error and whether an election’s winner is deemed to have earned a majority of votes. To maximize the number of ballots in the final round of tabulation and increase the odds of a majoritarian outcome, jurisdictions should consider adopting the IRV implementation rules proposed here: (1) allow voters to rank all candidates and (2) interpret overvotes, skipped rankings, and overrankings in the manner outlined within.

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“Assessing Alaska’s Top-4 Primary and Ranked Choice Voting Electoral Reform: More Moderate Winners, More Moderate Policy”

Glenn Wright, Ben Reilly and David Lublin have published this article in the Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy. Here is the abstract:

In recent years, ranked choice voting (RCV) has emerged as a leading electoral reform, often in combination with moves to open up primaries in order to increase voter choice and select more widely-supported representatives. Both nonpartisan primaries and RCV general elections have attracted advocacy from those seeking solutions to democratic malaise and polarization, and been introduced in different forms in several states. Despite this, only one legislature across the country has ever been elected under this model: the 2022 Alaskan State legislature, which combined a Top-4 nonpartisan primary with an RCV election. We assess the impact of this reform via ‘before and after’ case studies of individual electoral (re)matches, a survey of candidate ideological and policy positions, and examination of legislative coalitions. This research design allows us to isolate the impact of Top 4/RCV compared to the former model of closed party primaries and plurality general elections. We show that Alaska’s new electoral system provided more choice for voters and appears to have driven changes in both electoral outcomes and public policy. Despite more extremists standing for election post-reform, winning candidates were more likely to be centrists willing to work across the aisle and espouse moderate policy positions than prior to the reform.

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“New York Mayor Eric Adams to run for reelection as independent”

WaPo:

New York Mayor Eric Adams said Thursday that he would run for reelection as an independent, opting not to participate in the Democratic primary.

In a campaign video shared on social media, Adams said that although he remains a Democrat, “I am announcing that I will forgo the Democratic primary for mayor and appeal directly to all New Yorkers as an independent candidate in the general election.”

The announcementcame one day after a federal judge dismissed a corruption indictment against Adams, after a controversial push by the Justice Department to terminate the case. Adams pleaded not guilty last year to federal charges of bribery, wire fraud and seeking illegal campaign donations. He has been accused of cutting a deal with President Donald Trump to avoid prison — which he has denied — and his recent association with Trump has angered New York Democrats, a long list of whom began fundraising last year in a bid to unseat him in the primary.

Rob Richie writes in about this twist: “While NYC uses Ranked Choice Voting for party primaries, the charter commission narrowly voted not to put use fo RCV in general elections on the ballot, tied largely to how to have RCV interact with disaggregated fusion. So this could be a wild ride this year depending on the outcome of the Democratic and Republican mayoral primaries.”

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April 10 Safeguarding Democracy Project Webinar: “Partisan Primaries, Polarization, and the Risks of Extremism”

Join us for the final SDP webinar of the spring semester, April 10 at 12:15 pm PT (free registration required):

Thursday, April 10
Partisan Primaries, Polarization, and the Risks of Extremism
Register for the webinar here.
Thursday, April 10, 12:15pm-1:15pm PT, Webinar
Julia Azari, Marquette University,
Ned Foley, The University of Ohio, Moritz College of Law, 
Seth Masket, Denver University, and 
Rick Pildes, NYU Law School  
Richard L. Hasen, moderator (Director, Safeguarding Democracy Project, UCLA
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“Report: Deficiencies in Recent Research on Ranked Choice Voting Ballot Error Rates”

New from Alan Parry and John Kidd:

  • This report discusses recent research on ranked choice voting (RCV) and ballot error rates. 
  • Several studies indicate that ballot error in RCV elections follows the same patterns as error in non-RCV elections. However, two new studies – More Choices, More Problems? Ranked Choice Voting Errors in New York City and Ballot Marking Errors in Ranked-Choice Voting – claim that RCV increases ballot error rates. We show that both studies suffer from serious methodological and analytical flaws – the former from statistical analysis concerns and lack of suitable control cases, and the latter from false equivalence. 
  • Overall, relatively few ballots in RCV elections contain an error, and even fewer ballots are rejected. For most ballots containing an error, the voter’s intent is clear and the ballot is counted as intended. 
  • Future research should contextualize the impact of RCV more comprehensively, and compare RCV and single-choice voting more carefully. For example, if RCV and single-choice voting differ in terms of ballot error, that difference should be weighed against the fact that RCV makes more ballots count meaningfully. Recent research shows that RCV causes an average of 17% more votes to directly affect the outcome between top candidates. 
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“Overvotes, Overranks, and Skips: Mismarked and Rejected Votes in Ranked Choice Voting”

New article from Stephen Pettigrew and Dylan Radley in Political Behavior:

Voters express their electoral preferences through their ballot. More states and local jurisdictions are adopting ranked choice voting (RCV), which affects how voter preferences are translated into electoral results by introducing a more complex ranked ballot and accompanying tabulation process. This research provides empirical estimates of rates of improper marking and vote rejection, and compares them to those rates on non-ranked offices (particularly single-mark, ‘choose-one-candidate’ offices). We describe a new, general typology for categorizing the ways voters can improperly mark a ranked ballot. We apply this typology to a database of ranked choice ballots that includes 3 million cast vote records representing over three-quarters of all Americans living in a jurisdiction that uses RCV. The data show that in a typical ranked choice race, nearly 1 in 20 (4.8%) voters improperly mark their ballot in at least one way. We argue that these improper marks are consistent with voter confusion about their ranked ballot, and find evidence that this mismarking rate is higher in areas with more racial minorities, lower-income households, and lower levels of educational attainment. We further find that votes in ranked choice races are about 10 times more likely to be rejected due to an improper mark than votes in non-ranked choice races. These findings raise key questions about voter participation and representation in ranked choice systems and have important policy implications for jurisdictions that already have or are considering adopting ranked choice voting.

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“Redondo Beach elects new leaders — and makes history with ranked choice voting”

Interesting dive into the election here at the LAist:

Results are in from this month’s Redondo Beach election. The South Bay city elected a mayor and other representatives — and pulled off an experiment in ranked-choice voting. Major indicators show that the process was simple for voters to navigate, didn’t depress turnout, and that most voters — though not an overwhelming majority — seemed to approve of the new system.

. . .

Voters occasionally faced confusion. Some voters wrongly assumed their top choice should be ranked 6 instead of 1, because 6 was the highest number, Manzano said. In other cases, voters weren’t sure whether they had to rank every single candidate in order to vote. (For the record, a voter’s top preference should be ranked 1, and they’re allowed to rank as few or as many candidates as they like.)

“But once it was explained, they were OK with it,” she said.

The same exit poll found that 61% of surveyed voters favored ranked-choice voting, while 25% disapproved and 13% had no opinion. . . .

Saving money was a big factor in the city’s change, Manzano said.

Under ranked-choice voting, there is no runoff election between the top two candidates. Holding a runoff would normally cost Redondo Beach about $150,000, Manzano said. This was one of the reasons the City Council opted to explore alternative voting systems, ultimately resulting in the adoption of ranked choice.

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“New polling shows most Portlanders prefer ranked choice”

Axios:

A new poll shows most voters in Portland preferred ranked-choice voting to the city’s previous election method.

Why it matters: Previous polling showed the new system was widely understood by most voters, but this survey is the first to gauge the electorate’s preference as voters made decisions on who would take power under the city’s new form of government.

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“Reform for Realists: The False Promise of Condorcet Voting”

Mike Parsons and Rachel Hutchinson have posted this draft on SSRN. Here is the abstract:

As Americans grow disenchanted with democracy, many scholars suggest that election reforms may offer a path forward. The fastest growing of these reforms is ranked choice voting (RCV). In RCV elections, voters rank candidates in order of preference: first, second, third, and so on. The candidates with the least support are eliminated, and ballots that ranked those candidates count for their next choice instead. This method has over a century of use in public elections and provides proven benefits well-suited to many of the problems facing our country.

Yet some social choice theorists now argue that reformers have backed the wrong horse. They propose a different family of methods: Condorcet-compliant methods (CCMs). These scholars note that on rare occasions RCV can elect a winner other than the “Condorcet candidate” (i.e., the candidate who would have won against every other contender in pairwise contests), and they contend CCMs would fix this “flaw.” 

In this Article, we step back from the theoretical conversations about formal, mathematical election-system criteria that have dominated the discourse and offer a more functional framework for analyzing proposed reforms. This “reform for realists” approach seeks to situate the existing literature in a richer scholarly context, to surface and center key normative questions, and to ground future study in a thicker (albeit messier) account of mediated, pluralistic politics and competing reform options.

Through this wider lens, we evaluate the latest CCM literature and argue that much of it misses the forest for the trees, ignoring fundamental principles of democratic design and first-order questions at the foundation of election law. CCM advocacy to date builds on unrealistic assumptions about voter behavior; elides critical, complex, and contested normative questions; overlooks essential relationships between candidates, parties, campaigns, elections, and governance; and ultimately cannot deliver on its core promise: the guaranteed election of a genuine Condorcet candidate. Under real-world conditions, CCMs may even risk electing the candidate opposed by most voters.

In the end, a functional framework suggests there are limits to the value of comparing the real-world performance of known reforms to the hypothetical performance of untested reforms based on how rational voters or candidates “should” behave. CCMs may benefit from the study of private use cases and then initial municipal adoptions before wider applications are considered. For now, CCMs do not appear to offer benefits that can be predicted with the confidence to justify immediate use in government elections to public office, especially at the state or federal level.

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“Kansas bills would end grace period for mail ballots and ban ranked-choice voting”

Topeka Capital-Journal:

Kansas’s two election committees are fast at work in the Kansas Statehouse this year and have already had hearings on some of the more controversial election bills being considered.

Kansas has taken on a flurry of election security bills since 2020, when President Donald Trump baselessly blamed widespread voter fraud for his defeat. Some of the laws that passed in the Statehouse fell flat in the courts, namely the prohibition of “impersonating an election employee.”

Democrats have signalled that they’re not willing to work on many of the bills being considered.

“Anything that makes voting more difficult for Kansans is going to be a nonstarter with us,” said Senate Minority Leader Dinah Sykes, D-Lenexa….

In 2017, the Kansas Legislature approved a three-day grace period for ballots that were sent before Election Day, but received by a county election office up to three days after the election. A bill that would make a hard deadline of 7 p.m. on Election Day for ballots was recommended to be passed by the Senate Committee on Federal and State Affairs despite substantial pushback from opponents….

Sen. Mike Thompson, R-Shawnee, introduced a bill that would ban ranked-choice voting in Kansas, which hasn’t been adopted by any city thus far. Current state law doesn’t have a method for ranked-choice voting outlined in statute, meaning cities couldn’t do it unless lawmakers passed a law allowing it according to the Kansas Revisor of Statutes.

Madeline Malisa, a visiting fellow at Opportunity Solutions Project, argued that ranked-choice voting has been a “nightmare” in Maine, where she lives. She said the tabulation process throws out ballots, is too complicated and increases the chance of less-popular candidates to gain office.

Maine adopted ranked-choice voting in 2018, but several Republican-led states have soured on the idea after Alaska elected its first Democrat in decades in its first ranked-choice election…..

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“Ranked Choice Voting May Be a Stepping Stone to Proportional Representation”

Eveline Dowling in The Fulcrum:

n the 2024 U.S. election, several states did not pass ballot initiatives to implement Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) despite strong majority support from voters under 65. Still, RCV was defended in Alaska, passed by a landslide in Washington, D.C., and has earned majority support in 31 straight pro-RCV city ballot measures. Still, some critics of RCV argue that it does not enhance and promote democratic principles as much as forms of proportional representation (PR), as commonly used throughout Europe and Latin America.

However, in the U.S. many people have not heard of PR. The question under consideration is whether implementing RCV serves as a stepping stone to PR by building public understanding and support for reforms that move away from winner-take-all systems. Utilizing a nationally representative sample of respondents (N=1000) on the 2022 Cooperative Election Survey (CES), results show that individuals who favor RCV often also know about and back PR. When comparing other types of electoral reforms, RCV uniquely transfers into support for PR, in ways that support for nonpartisan redistricting and the national popular vote do not. These findings can inspire efforts that demonstrate how RCV may facilitate the adoption of PR in the U.S….

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