Bob Bauer on the Watson cert. grant.
See also my earlier Slate piece on the case.
I have written this piece for Slate. It begins:
President Donald Trump’s obsession with mail-in balloting reached the Supreme Court on Monday through a bonkers 5th Circuit opinion written by Trump appointee (and Trump Supreme Court auditioner) Andrew Oldham. Disagreeing with plain statutory text, statutory history, Supreme Court precedent, and the practice of many states, Judge Oldham’s opinion held that Mississippi violates federal law when it accepts ballots postmarked by Election Day that arrive within five days of the election. If the Supreme Court upholds the 5th Circuit in Watson v. Republican National Committee, 29 states and the District of Columbia would have to change their laws to require receipt of virtually all ballots by Election Day, aside from a small class of ballots including those from military and overseas voters….
We should look at the 5th Circuit in the broader context of a war on voting. It is unsurprising that Oldham reached such a voter-hostile and Trump-friendly conclusion. Back in 2021, in the midst of the COVID pandemic, Oldham dissented from a 5th Circuit decision on whether it violated federal law—not Texas law—for Harris County, Texas, to allow drive-through voting in 2020, something very much appreciated by those who did not want to get sick when voting.
That dissent, like his majority opinion in Watson, seems written for an audience of one, Donald Trump, who I expect will get at least one more Supreme Court appointment next summer when either Justice Samuel Alito (who Oldham clerked for) or Justice Clarence Thomas retires.
We have seen many Federalist Society and conservative judges hold the line on blatantly political and unsupported arguments advanced by Trump and his allies to make voting harder and election subversion easier. Judge Oldham’s opinion shows that not only will some judges not hold that line, they are ready to be partners with Trump and his allies in a new wave of voter suppression.
I have written this piece for Slate. It begins:
If Democrats and those on the left want to draw one lesson from the lopsided 64–36 victory of Proposition 50 in California earlier this week, it is that the public understands that these are not normal times, and that to get democracy on track again in the U.S. it may take some drastic, norm-breaking measures. If in the period after Donald Trump’s tenure, Democrats retake control of the House and Senate and secure the presidency, bold election reform that protects both free and fair elections and voting rights must be on the table….
When Democrats had control of both houses of Congress and Joe Biden was in the White House, the House passed and a majority in the Senate passed both the John Lewis Voting Rights Amendments Act and a broader package of election reforms. But Democrats, especially Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, were not willing to make an exception to the filibuster to get a final vote for the legislation in the Senate, meaning that this legislation died. That was a costly mistake.
In an age when voters see Donald Trump breaking norms to solidify his power and move the country toward authoritarianism, trying to just return to normal after Trump and pretend the last decade-plus of threats to democracy did not happen is not a good strategy. It will just leave more openings for the next would-be authoritarian. Proposition 50’s decisive victory shows that voters are enthusiastic about breaking norms, if doing so can achieve national partisan fairness and to counter the many anti-majoritarian features of American democracy.
Nate packs a lot of data and important observations into this talk, which was held on October 7, 2025. Watch:
Over at TPM, I wonder whether a brilliant bit of South Park satire may shed some helpful light on the magical wishcasting of unilateral federal executive control over electoral process.
Walter at his Substack:
An Aug. 29 policy statement from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, the federal agency, says the agency will from now on bar nonpartisan groups such as the League of Women Voters from offering voter registration services at the end of CIS-hosted naturalization ceremonies.
The League of Women Voters, deploring the move, says it’s been offering voter registration at naturalization ceremonies “for decades.”
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If CIS has alleged that this process has been abused in some way, I’ve missed it.
Under the new policy, CIS will still invite state and local election agencies — and only them — to offer voter registration after ceremonies. The League, however, says those agencies often lack capacity to send personnel to the events and have been grateful for the help….
The new policy applies to so-called administrative naturalization ceremonies in which CIS officials are present. That includes not only those held at CIS facilities but also, so far as I can see, those at off-site locations that civic or government groups have made available for the occasion, such as civic centers and other public buildings, military bases, sporting events, fairs and so forth. CIS can and does place extensive conditions on the government and civic groups that make these venues available, so I assume it can probably impose its policy, or something close, in off-site locations that are not on CIS’s own property.
On the other hand, if I’m reading the newly revised CIS policy manual correctly, the new policy does not extend (see Footnote 1) to “judicial” naturalizations in which a federal, state, or local judge administers the oath of allegiance at a courthouse or elsewhere. If so, nonprofits can still register voters at those venues with host permission….

Tuesday, September 16, 12:15pm-1:15pm PT, Webinar
Register here.
Ben Haiman, UVA Center for Public Safety and Justice, Liz Howard, NYU Law Brennan Center for Justice, and Stephen Richer, Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation, Harvard Kennedy School
Richard L. Hasen, moderator (Director, Safeguarding Democracy Project, UCLA)
UCLA School of Law is a State Bar of California approved MCLE provider. This session is approved for 1 hour of MCLE credit.

Tuesday, October 7, 12:15pm-1:15pm PT, Room 1337 UCLA Law and online
Register here for in-person. Lunch will be provided.
Register here for Webinar.
Richard L. Hasen, Director, Safeguarding Democracy Project, UCLA and Nate Persily, Stanford Law School
UCLA School of Law is a State Bar of California approved MCLE provider. This session is approved for 1 hour of MCLE credit.

Thursday, October 16, 12:15pm-1:15pm PT, Webinar
Register here.
Guy-Uriel Charles, Harvard Law School, Moon Duchin, Director, Data and Democracy Research Initiative, University of Chicago, Michael Li, NYU Law Brennan Center for Justice, and Nicholas Stephanopoulos, Harvard Law School.
Richard L. Hasen, moderator (Director, Safeguarding Democracy Project, UCLA)
UCLA School of Law is a State Bar of California approved MCLE provider. This session is approved for 1 hour of MCLE credit.

Thursday, October 30, 12:15pm-1:15pm PT, Webinar
Register here.
Co-sponsored by the Institute for Technology, Law & Policy
Danielle Citron, UVA Law School, Brendan Nyhan, Dartmouth College, and Amy Wilentz, UCI Emerita
Richard L. Hasen, moderator (Director, Safeguarding Democracy Project, UCLA)
UCLA School of Law is a State Bar of California approved MCLE provider. This session is approved for 1 hour of MCLE credit.
The Supreme Court, the Voting Rights Act, and the 2026 Elections

Tuesday, November 18, 12:15pm-1:15pm, PT, Webinar
Register here.
Ellen Katz, University of Michigan Law School, Lenny Powell, Native American Rights Fund, and Deuel Ross, Legal Defense Fund
Richard L. Hasen, moderator (Director, Safeguarding Democracy Project, UCLA)
UCLA School of Law is a State Bar of California approved MCLE provider. This session is approved for 1 hour of MCLE credit.
Justin here. Today, California Gov. Newsom announced what he’d been foreshadowing for a while now — an effort to seek voters’ approval for new congressional district lines in a Nov. 4 special election. (Rick noted the border patrol “escort” for the press conference. I can’t help note that the Japanese American National Museum – for those who haven’t been, it’s got a tremendously powerful series of exhibits on the WWII internment — is a little on the nose as a backdrop for a militarized show of force at a political event.)
The exact contours of the legislative package to make the redistricting initiative happen probably won’t be crystal clear until the legislature gets back next week. But among the pieces I’ll be watching:
Lots still TBD here.
I’m can’t-look-away-from-the-train-wreck fascinated by the guidance on how investors can profit off of civil rights struggles:
The Supreme Court’s 2013 Shelby County v. Holder decision, which gutted the Voting Rights Act’s (VRA) preclearance protections, has unleashed a wave of litigation across the U.S. While the ruling aimed to reduce federal oversight, it instead ignited a firestorm of legal battles over voting access and redistricting. For investors, this isn’t just a civil rights story—it’s a roadmap to sectors primed for growth in racially polarized states. Let’s dissect the opportunities and risks.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution covers a distressingly familiar fight that’s now hit the courts:
The Democrat-controlled Fulton County Commission in May voted along party lines to reject the GOP’s nominees. That led the Georgia Republican Party to sue earlier this month contending the commission is required to accept the party’s choices.
. . .
In both Fulton and DeKalb, the Republican and Democratic parties nominate representatives for four out of five seats on the election boards, which are then confirmed or rejected by the county commission or chief judge. The tiebreaking fifth seat in Fulton was nominated by the commission chairman and in DeKalb by the other four members.
. . .
Fulton Commissioner Marvin Arrington, a Democrat, said he had a responsibility to oppose the Republican Party’s nominees: Jason Frazier, who has challenged the eligibility of thousands of voter registrations, and Julie Adams, an incumbent election board member who voted against certifying last year’s primary election.
. . .
Georgia Republican Party Chairman Josh McKoon said Fulton is denying Republican representation on the county election board. The existing Republican appointees to the board will continue to serve until their replacements are confirmed.
I agree with Votebeat’s topline description of the latest tiff in the Wolverine State:
Michigan’s top election official is locked in a clamorous legal battle with Republican lawmakers over access to election training materials, a conflict that likely has less to do with policy than politics — and the coming race for governor.
NCSL’s election bill roundup notes the shift of this year’s crop:
With most legislatures having adjourned, the number of election bills introduced was 3,160, with 331 of them enacted into law across 43 states, according to NCSL tracking. Although this is a significant increase from the 2,017 bills NCSL tracked at the same point in the 2024 session, the number of enactments last year—218—was only slightly off this year’s count. It’s common to see an increase in election-related legislation following a presidential election, and this has certainly proved true in 2025.
With election bills introduced on a wide range of subjects, some notable trends and consistently popular topics came to the fore. Among a range of enactment trends, citizenship and voter identification continued their 2024 resurgence as areas of high legislative interest, bans on ranked-choice voting continue to increase, and the standardization of election dates stood out.
The NYT headline is “If Everyone Had Voted, Harris Still Would Have Lost.”
Which, of course, is impossible to know, unless you assume that demographics is inevitably destiny.
But the broader point of the outcome of this new Pew study is one a few of us have been noting for a while: Trump had/has significant appeal among a set of voters less likely to vote frequently (including a larger component of racial and ethnic minorities than his previous runs). That likely means that efforts to increase turnout may favor Republicans, at least in some areas.
And because less frequent voters are hardest hit by new barriers, I’ve wondered quite a bit whether we’ll start to see the fact of Trump’s appeal to less frequent voters reflected in shifting incentives for election administration, fighting quite a bit of what seems to be received conventional wisdom.