“Abcarian: Does Donald Trump really think he can run for president again in 2028?”

Robin Abcarian in the LA Times:

At this point, the Constitution seems less a constraint than a mere sticking point for Trump as he smashmouths his way past anything that impedes his heart’s desires.

“I think the scenario in which he can legitimately — through some even remotely quasi-democratic means — stay on after January of 2029 is zero,” said [Pamela] Karlan, who co-directs Stanford’s Supreme Court Litigation Clinic, and served twice as a deputy assistant attorney general in the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division.

What about a scenario, though, where Trump could be, say, JD Vance’s running mate in 2028 and then return to power once Vance steps aside?

“Some people make cutesy arguments…that he should run as vice president, but I think most states would refuse to put him on the ballot,” Karlan said. “It’s an argument made by people who are cleverer than they are smart.”

On the other hand, she noted, if a pro-Trump Republican candidate were to win in 2028, Trump could function as something of a shadow president.

“He could be the power behind the president in the sense that the president could name him secretary of State,” Karlan said. “Or theoretically attorney general, even though he’s not a lawyer, or name him secretary of whatever they are calling the Defense Department at that point.”

Election law expert Rick Hasen, director of the Safeguarding Democracy Project at the UCLA School of Law, told me he’s less worried about the next presidential election and far more concerned about ways in which Trump might interfere in the 2026 midterms.

“I think 2028 is a long way off and assuming that Trump does not try to run again, he may not have that much interest in the next election because he will be done,” Hasen said. “Also, he is 79.”

In 2026, though, Trump could wreak all kinds of electoral havoc, Hasen said, such as “Sending troops to block voting in some areas, seizing voting machines, pressuring election officials to illegally count or not count valid ballots, or change the vote count — the kinds of things we saw in the aftermath of the 2020 election. I don’t think anything is off the table.”…

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“Partisan Shutdown Messages Could Hurt Civil Service, Experts Warn”

NYT:

The Trump administration’s levying of political attacks on Democrats through federal agency websites and the out-of-office email messages of furloughed workers challenges the foundation of a nonpartisan civil service, a move that could deepen distrust in the government, according to experts and federal employees.

The deluge of messages blaming the “radical left” and Senate Democrats for the ongoing government shutdown that were shared across official channels serves as one of the most significant hits yet to the longstanding wall between federal workers and politics while they are on the job, historians said.

The messages immediately drew concerns that they may violate the Hatch Act, a Depression-era law intended to ensure that the federal work force operates free of political influence or coercion. Federal employees can engage in politics, but not while working.

“We have had lots of shutdowns,” said Don Kettl, an emeritus professor at the University of Maryland who studies the civil service, but “never before have top officials tried to use their employees as human shields in the partisan battle.”

The political messages put federal employees in an untenable position, said Kevin Owen, a lawyer with Gilbert Employment Law, who has been representing fired federal workers this year.

“What is going on right now is running counter to the trainings that some of these employees have had for 15, 20 years,” Mr. Owen said. “It’s bedrock principles of the civil service.”

Many current and former federal workers expressed shock at the administration’s decision to push employees into the partisan fray by having political language in the outgoing email messages of workers at the Departments of Education, Health and Human Services, Housing and Urban Development, Labor, and Veterans Affairs.

“Unfortunately, Democrat Senators are blocking passage of H.R. 5371 in the Senate which has led to a lapse in appropriations,” one version of an outgoing message said…

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“Long Island Republicans criticized for filing lawsuit to keep missing Democratic candidate’s name on ballot”

CBS News:

Republicans on Long Island are under fire after they filed a lawsuit to keep the name of a Democrat running for the Nassau County Legislature on the ballot even though he has been missing for over five months.

The family of Petros Krommidas, 29, said he disappeared after going for a swim in the ocean back in April and is now presumed dead.

Democrats were trying to get political activist James Hodge on the ballot instead, but Republicans filed a lawsuit against the change and a judge ruled Krommidas’ name must stay since he has not been legally declared dead….

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“Democracies in the Age of Fragmentation”

Here is an excerpt from my essay this week in NYU’s Democracy Project series of essays on challenges facing democracy today, both here and elsewhere:

Writing from Mussolini’s prison in 1930, the Italian political theorist Antonio Gramsci observed of democracies in his era: “The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear.”  In our era, something about the old forms of democracy also seems to be dying.

The last decade and a half have witnessed pervasive dissatisfaction with democratic governments throughout the West.  As a result, governments have become more fragile and unstable.  In the last two years alone, the governments of Europe’s dominant powers, Germany and France, have collapsed, as did those in Portugal, the Netherlands, and Canada.  The U.K. has been forced to hold three snap elections in the last seven years.  No matter which parties are in power, citizens are dissatisfied.

Politics is exceptionally turbulent.  Since 2000 in the U.S., every election but two has changed which party controls either the House, the Senate, or the White House.  That rate of churning is unprecedented.

All this reflects a new era I call one of “political fragmentation.”  Political fragmentation means the myriad ways in which practical political power is now dispersed among many different actors and centers of power, including a proliferation of insurgent political parties in Europe, more extreme political factions in the U.S., an explosion of organized outside groups, or the new-found power of even unorganized groups and a host of individual influencers.  This fragmentation of politics, which media fragmentation accelerates, makes it increasingly difficult to marshal sufficient political power and legitimate authority to address democratic citizens’ major concerns effectively….

Alienated from traditional political elites and parties, voters in the proportional-representation systems of Europe have turned to new, more extreme parties on the left and right, including anti-system parties.  The new-right parties have particularly exploded.  Marine Le Pen’s National Rally Party became France’s leading party after its recent 2024 election. Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy is Italy’s leading party; she is now Prime Minister.  The Alternative for Germany (AfD) became the second largest party in Germany’s most recent election.  Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom is the largest in the Netherlands.  The Sweden Democrats are that country’s second largest party; in Portugal, the Chega Party, formed in 2019, is now the second largest.  Despite country-level nuances, many of these new-right parties endorse more restrictive immigration policies and traditional cultural values, while being economically populist and supportive of the welfare state.  As this chart shows, across 27 European countries, these parties in the aggregate now capture similar vote shares as the traditional center-left and center-right parties and coalitions:

Those who imagine older voters resistant to change drive support for these parties will be surprised.  Young voters, alienated and dissatisfied, support these new-right parties at high rates.  Among younger voters in most of these countries, these parties are either the most popular or the second most, with more extreme parties of the left the most popular….

These patterns also reflect the decline of the traditional left, as working-class voters across the West – a much larger share of the electorate than many realize – view the parties of the left as having abandoned their interests on economic and, even more so, cultural issues.  Across Europe, the average support for right-wing parties is 13 points higher than for left-wing parties, the largest gap since at least 1990.   This new landscape, fertilized by the communications revolution, makes politics more fragmented and turbulent, as parties struggle to figure out how to appeal to their radically reconfigured bases of support.

Similar forces have been re-shaping U.S. democracy, though they take different form in our two-party system.  The combined approval of the two parties in recent years is among the lowest ever recorded.  Disdain for traditional political elites is reflected in the appeal of outsiders:  Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, Zohran Mamdani.  Donald Trump has absorbed into the Republican Party many of the policies of Europe’s new-right parties.  Democrats, particularly younger voters, have been turning to self-characterized socialists at the far pole of the party.  Reflecting the same realignment as in Europe, Donald Trump’s 2024 coalition in income and educational terms stunningly resembles Bill Clinton’s from the 1990s:

For better or worse, the U.S. two-party system, during unified government, makes it easier to overcome fragmentation than in Europe.  Whether Republicans in Congress this time can overcome the internal conflicts that limited their legislative achievements in Trump I, other than tax cuts, is too early to assess.  Executive action has dominated governance thus far, and even internally fractious parties typically approve their President’s nominees.  But a united Republican Congress did manage to pass the massive “Big Beautiful Bill.”  Whether Republicans will be united enough to pass further major legislation before the midterms remains to be seen.       

Perhaps the political fragmentation we see through much of democratic politics today is a “morbid symptom” of transition to a new form of democratic politics.  Much turns on whether it is temporary and contingent or more enduring.  Political fragmentation reflects continual democratic dissatisfaction, but perversely, also makes it that much harder for governments to respond effectively to citizens’ demands.  And when democracies are unable to do so, alienation and anger can give way to worse (or perhaps already has), including yearnings for strongman leaders who promise they alone can deliver. 

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“Progressives and the Supreme Court: The Case for Disengagement Is Misguided”

Next, here is an excerpt from Bob Bauer’s essay in the NYU Democracy Project’s series of 100 essays in 100 days:

…I entirely agree with critics who are very troubled by aspects of this [presidential immunity] opinion, including its holding that a president’s official actions may not even be introduced into evidence in a trial for alleged misconduct for which he cannot claim immunity. (For that matter, I have strongly disagreed with the executive branch opinions that have held that presidents enjoy full immunity while in office.) But it was not at all surprising that the Court held that, as a doctrinal matter, former presidents enjoyed a significant measure of immunity. The (unfortunate) logic across administrations supporting full immunity for incumbents would necessarily apply in some ways to prosecutions initiated after their terms ended. And it bears noting that, while contesting Trump’s claims of absolute immunity for a former president’s official acts, the Biden Administration endorsed the proposition that the criminal laws could not be applied to “core” presidential functions. Setting aside its immediate and rightly controversial impact on the Jan. 6 Trump prosecution, the constitutional question before the Court was complex and, in key respects, its future application in immunizing wrongful presidential conduct remains uncertain.

I do not see this decision, or others in which the administration prevailed during the most recent Term, as predictive of what the Court will do when finally ruling on the constitutionality of the birthright citizenship executive order, or the authority Trump claims for deportations under the Alien Enemies Act (AEA). The Court has insisted on due process and adequate notice in the case of the deportation of Venezuelans alleged to be cartel members. It has barred the removal from the country of a class of detainees under the AEA while appellate review is pending, after halting deportations in that case a month earlier in the early hours of the morning, and upheld a lower court order that the government “facilitate” the return of a deportee the administration had conceded was mistakenly removed from the country. On these issues (if not on others), the Court signaled that it will pay attention to what the administration does as well as what it claims it is doing. It is not so far clear that it will go as far as Trump and his radical constitutional theorists would want in advancing control of independent administrative agencies. The Court has already flinched in a preliminary order at extending broad presidential removal authority as far as the Federal Reserve. Related concerns may give the Court pause before it provides presidents with full control over agencies with politically charged missions, such as the Federal Election Commission (campaign finance) and the Election Assistance Commission (election administration), that Congress structured to ensure – for obvious reasons – that no one political party could direct their operations.

Again, time will have to pass, and perhaps a lot of time, before this argument about the Court can be settled one way or the other. And the signs are not by any means all positive.There is also this decisive and perhaps obvious consideration favoring ongoing progressive engagement with the Court. …

The defense against presidential supremacism and the progressive concern with the substantive direction of the constitutional law are not severable. Executives empowered to rule by executive order and emergency decree can – and indeed strive to – enact their constitutional agendas without having to worry as much about the courts. We have seen in a world of “separation of parties, not powers” that Congress may not impose much in the way of constraints. In this sense, when thinking about resort to the courts, progressives are not choosing between constitutional issues of presidential power and all others. Their substantive constitutional commitments hinge on a successful defense against presidential supremacy in moving policies that they abhor. That is, unless there is any thought that Democrats would want to take this model of supreme executive power on as their own, when their next turn in the Oval Office comes about. Perish that thought.

As for the argument that progressives should expect less from the courts and more from strategies of political action directed toward winning elections and shaping public opinion: well, yes, and not just as an answer to disappointments with this Court, but at all times.

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