Columbus Dispatch:

Issue 1 was projected to fail on Tuesday, according to Decision Desk HQ, dealing a blow to Ohio Republicans who wanted to hamstring a November ballot question on abortion rights.

Decision Desk HQ, an election results reporting agency providing results and race calls for the USA TODAY Network Ohio, called the race around 8:09 p.m. With about 28% of the vote counted, no vote was leading 68% to 32%.

Tuesday’s election was the culmination of a months-long fight that began last year, when Secretary of State Frank LaRose and Rep. Brian Stewart, R-Ashville, first introduced a plan to tighten the rules for constitutional amendments. The debate played out in the halls of the Ohio Statehouse, on the campaign trail and even in the courtroom as opponents tried to stop GOP lawmakers in their tracks.

Proponents of the measure said they want to keep controversial policies out of the constitution and reserve it for the state’s fundamental rights and values. Critics argued the ballot measure was a power grab that would hamstring the rights of citizens to place an issue on the ballot….

Republicans made it clear that they wanted to hold the election before November, when Ohioans will decide whether to enshrine reproductive rights in the constitution. That turned Tuesday’s election into a nationally watched proxy war over the abortion debate, as Ohio is the only state voting on the issue in 2023.

Even with such high stakes, convincing Ohioans to pay attention to a convoluted political issue in the summer cost both sides millions of dollars

Murray and Shaw NYT Oped:

In Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, the Supreme Court justified its decision overruling Roe with an appeal to democracy. In the Dobbs majority opinion, Justice Samuel Alito wrote that the conclusion in Roe that the Constitution protected the right to abortion had stripped the American people of “the power to address a question of profound moral and social importance.” On this logic, the Dobbs decision merely corrected an egregious error, returning the power to regulate abortion “to the people and their elected representatives.”

Despite this paean to democracy, in the past year, elected officials in a number of states have demonstrated a disturbing hostility toward democracy when it is used to protect abortion rights and reproductive freedom. In that time, more than a dozen states have banned abortion, through the enforcement of pre-Roe abortion bans or the enactment of new ones. In other states, abortion access has been severely limited.

But one important countervailing trend in the post-Dobbs era has been the use of direct democracy to protect abortion rights. The mechanisms of direct democracy — referendums, initiatives, ballot questions and the like — allow voters to register their preferences directly, bypassing elected officials and other intermediaries.

These vehicles have proved remarkably effective. Since the fall of Roe, every time Americans have gone to the polls to vote directly on matters of abortion, they have voted to protect reproductive rights, expanding protections for abortion access and rejecting efforts to roll back access to abortion.

Perhaps that is why many Republican officials — many who once celebrated Dobbs and the prospect of democratic deliberation — are now laboring mightily to restrict access to direct democracy.

Supporters of reproductive freedom across the country must continue to flock to the polls to defeat efforts to throttle democratic processes where they are being used to limit democratic deliberation on abortion.

Nowhere is this imperative more pressing than in Ohio, where one of the most brazen attempts of this kind is underway. There, elected officials are seeking to erect obstacles to amending the state Constitution, almost certainly to prevent Ohio voters from enshrining reproductive freedom in that state’s charter.

See this complaint (via Martin Austermuhle).

John Matsusaka has posted this draft on SSRN. Here is the abstract:

Direct democracy backsliding occurs when a state alters its laws to hinder the use of initiatives and referendums. This study quantifies the prevalence of direct democracy backsliding over the period 1960-2022, and investigates its causes. I find a continuous chipping away at direct democracy throughout the period; legislatures proposed 2.3 amendments restricting direct democracy every two-year electoral cycle on average, and there were four amendments restricting direct democracy for one expanding it. Contrary to media speculation, the amount of such activity is not unusually high recently. Using time series and cross-sectional variation with state and year fixed effects, I identify two factors that triggered anti-direct democracy proposals: Republican control of the state legislature, and successful initiatives and referendums. I develop a theoretical framework to characterize the motives for direct democratic backsliding, and provide evidence suggesting that strategic motives – restricting direct democracy to induce favored policy outcomes – may be less important than philosophical preferences over processes, including objections to citizen lawmaking in principle. Anti-direct-democracy efforts were largely driven by elites – ordinary voters did not appear to share the negative orientation of their elected representatives.

Politico: “National Democrats had all but written off Florida as a lost cause — a former purple state turned solid red by the MAGA movement and Gov. Ron DeSantis. But key party leaders in the state, desperate to turn things around in 2024, are confident that citizen initiatives dealing with abortion rights and recreational marijuana legalization could fuel turnout and boost the party’s chances.”

Cleveland.com:

After an abortion rights amendment qualified to appear on the November ballot in Ohio, a new lawsuit from Republicans asks the Ohio Supreme Court to block the measure.

Filed on Friday, the challenge argues that the abortion rights petition did not identify which state laws would have to be repealed if the constitutional amendment were to be adopted….

The legal challenge came three days after the Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose approved the amendment for the November ballot, certifying that the required number of valid signatures were obtained to put the issue before voters.

Marin Independent Journal reports:

AB 1416, which became effective in January, requires that the supporters and opponents of statewide and local measures be listed on ballots. However, the law allows counties to opt out of participating.

On Tuesday, Marin County supervisors voted 4-1 to do just that, at least for the 2023 and 2024 election cycles. Supervisor Mary Sackett cast the dissenting vote.

The majority chose not to follow the recommendation of the county’s election advisory committee, which voted 6-4 to recommend implementation of the law.

The Guardian:

A Florida group primarily funded by an Illinois billionaire is driving the recent attacks on direct democracy in states such as Ohio, Missouri, South Dakota and Arkansas.

The Foundation for Government Accountability, a Florida-based group affiliated with the alliance of conservative thinktanks called the State Policy Network, has played a key role in recent efforts to raise the threshold for passing citizen ballot initiatives from a simple majority to a supermajority, and to make it harder to place measures on the ballot in the first place.

These efforts are designed to derail citizen-led ballot initiatives to protect abortion rights, raise the minimum wage or expand Medicaid. In effect, FGA and its allies seek to give 41% of the voting population an effective veto over the wishes of the other 59%.

In at least four states, FGA and its lobbying arm, the Opportunity Solutions Project, have lobbied or testified in favor of changing ballot initiative rules to enshrine minority rule, and in some cases have financed ballot committees advocating for those changes. FGA has also issued reports, legal memos, op-eds and polling that advocate for gutting direct democracy.

The latest fight is in Ohio, where Republican lawmakers last month passed a measure requiring future constitutional amendments to receive at least 60% support from voters – rather than a simple majority – and that would make it harder for proposed amendments to make it on to the ballot. Ohioans will now vote in August on whether to approve the higher thresholds.

The controversial plan is designed to derail an abortion rights initiative expected to be on the ballot in November.

When Ohio Republicans first proposed the supermajority requirement last year, a representative of FGA’s lobbying arm was the only person who testified in favor. FGA’s lobbying arm again testified in support of the proposal earlier this year, in hearings before the House and Senate. FGA argued that the proposal was necessary to “make it more difficult for out of state billionaires and dark money groups” to change Ohio law.

As the measure moved through Ohio’s Republican-controlled legislature, the Illinois billionaire Dick Uihlein gave $1.1m to the newly created “Save Our Constitution PAC”, which ran ads pressuring state lawmakers to support the measure; Uihlein is expected to contribute more as the August vote approaches.

A foundation controlled by Uihlein is also the largest known source of FGA’s funding, giving $17.6m since 2014. Uihlein has also been one of the key funders of election denial. Among other things, Uihlein has poured tens of millions into his “Restoration of America” network that promotes ludicrous election conspiracy theories and which created a controversial database that published voters’ personal information online in the name of uncovering election fraud. In the 2022 cycle, Dick Uihlein and his wife, Liz, were also top donors to election-denying candidates like the Pennsylvania gubernatorial hopeful Doug Mastriano and Nevada secretary of state candidate Jim Marchant.