All posts by Rick Hasen

“The Future of Voting Rights Is on the Line at the Supreme Court”

Here’s a transcript of a bit of my Slate Amicus podcast conversation with Dahlia Lithwick:

Can you just explain to us what happens if Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act is no longer the mechanism by which voters can remedy racially discriminatory voting practices?

It would be an earthquake in American politics, like nothing we’ve seen before, because Section 2 applies nationwide, it applies to congressional districts, it applies to city council races, it applies to state legislative districts. Any place where legislative lines are drawn and white people and minority voters prefer different candidates—and that’s not just in the South, that’s in parts of California, that’s in places all over the country—Section 2 would no longer require race-conscious districting, and it would mean that our legislative bodies will be less diverse. They will be whiter. Now some of the people who’ve been elected before as incumbents, they’d still be able to get elected, but you’re going to see a bunch of redistricting in places where you could draw more Republican seats and squeeze out seats. Think about some of the most prominent Black members of Congress, the most prominent Latino members of state legislatures; some of these people would no longer be able to get elected. It would be huge. So I can’t even tell you what an effect Section 2 has had in assuring fair minority representation in this country, and it would be gone.

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Walter Olson: “CIS kicks voter registration groups out of naturalization ceremonies”

Walter at his Substack:

An Aug. 29 policy statement from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, the federal agency, says the agency will from now on bar nonpartisan groups such as the League of Women Voters from offering voter registration services at the end of CIS-hosted naturalization ceremonies.

The League of Women Voters, deploring the move, says it’s been offering voter registration at naturalization ceremonies “for decades.”

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If CIS has alleged that this process has been abused in some way, I’ve missed it.

Under the new policy, CIS will still invite state and local election agencies — and only them — to offer voter registration after ceremonies. The League, however, says those agencies often lack capacity to send personnel to the events and have been grateful for the help….

The new policy applies to so-called administrative naturalization ceremonies in which CIS officials are present. That includes not only those held at CIS facilities but also, so far as I can see, those at off-site locations that civic or government groups have made available for the occasion, such as civic centers and other public buildings, military bases, sporting events, fairs and so forth. CIS can and does place extensive conditions on the government and civic groups that make these venues available, so I assume it can probably impose its policy, or something close, in off-site locations that are not on CIS’s own property.

On the other hand, if I’m reading the newly revised CIS policy manual correctly, the new policy does not extend (see Footnote 1) to “judicial” naturalizations in which a federal, state, or local judge administers the oath of allegiance at a courthouse or elsewhere. If so, nonprofits can still register voters at those venues with host permission….

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“The gerrymandering battle has a historical precedent. It’s a warning we should heed.”

Alex Keyssar oped in The Boston Globe:

The framers of the Constitution — assembling in 1787, a time when political parties did not exist — chose to leave it to the state Legislatures to decide how to select presidential electors. Although, as later explained by James Madison, choosing electors through district elections within each state “was mostly, if not exclusively in view when the Constitution was framed,” the final document permitted states to experiment and develop their own systems.

In the first presidential elections, some states did indeed hold district elections to choose electors, others preferred statewide general ticket (winner-take-all) elections, and still others chose to dispense with popular elections and let their Legislatures pick the electors — which unsurprisingly resulted in all of a state’s electoral votes being cast for the same candidate. Numerous states changed their method of selection from one election to the next; some developed hybrid systems.

But political parties were taking shape rapidly in the 1790s, and the experiments in electoral design were soon engulfed by partisan interests, both Federalist and Democratic-Republican. Parties that confidently controlled the Legislature in each state increasingly opted for methods of choosing electors that would deliver all of a state’s electoral votes to their candidates.

The triumph of partisanship over principle was vividly played out in the key state of Virginia in the 1800 presidential election. That year’s bitterly contested election pitted Federalist John Adams against the Democratic-Republican, Thomas Jefferson; it was a rematch of the 1796 election, which Adams had won by only three electoral votes. One of those Adams votes had come from a Virginian, who was elected to his post thanks to the commonwealth’s use of a district system.

Virginia’s Republicans, who dominated state politics, had long expressed a preference for district elections as the method that would yield results that best reflected the views of a diverse people. But they were also determined to elect Jefferson, and the Legislature consequently decided to switch to the “general ticket” in the 1800 election — to prevent Adams from picking up any electoral votes in the nation’s largest state. (To no one’s surprise, Massachusetts then retaliated, switching to legislative selection of electors, to bolster the candidacy of Adams, its native son.)

The Virginia Legislature’s decision was controversial, widely denounced as an unprincipled surrender to the ignoble spirit of “faction.” John Marshall, a Virginia native and soon to become chief justice of the United States, found the Legislature’s action to be so distasteful that he vowed to never vote again in a presidential election as long as the general ticket was in place.

Notably, Republicans in the Legislature acknowledged the legitimacy of the criticism: They defended what they had done on the pragmatic grounds that many Federalist states were already utilizing winner-take-all elections and that it would thus be foolish for Virginia to disadvantage its preferred candidate by doing otherwise. In a formal statement, the Legislature declared that such partisan maneuvers were warranted “until some uniform mode for choosing a President … shall be prescribed by an amendment to the Constitution.” Virginia, in effect, would act in a principled manner once all states were doing so….

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“How Elon Musk Is Remaking Grok in His Image”

NYT:

Elon Musk has said Grok, the A.I.-powered chatbot that his company developed, should be “politically neutral” and “maximally truth-seeking.”

But in practice, Mr. Musk and his artificial intelligence company, xAI, have tweaked the chatbot to make its answers more conservative on many issues, according to an analysis of thousands of its responses by The New York Times. The shifts appear, in some cases, to reflect Mr. Musk’s political priorities.

Grok is similar to tools like ChatGPT, but it also lives on X, giving the social network’s users the opportunity to ask it questions by tagging it in posts.

One user on X asked Grok in July to identify the “biggest threat to Western civilization.” It responded that the greatest threat was “misinformation and disinformation.”

“Sorry for this idiotic response,” Mr. Musk groused on X after someone flagged Grok’s answer. “Will fix in the morning,” he said.

The next day, Mr. Musk published a new version of Grok that responded that the greatest threat was low “fertility rates” — an idea popular among conservative natalists that has transfixed Mr. Musk for years and something he has said motivated him to father at least 11 children….

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Announcing the Safeguarding Democracy Project’s Fall Lineup of Events and Webinars, Focused on the Fairness and Integrity of the 2026 Midterms

The Risk of Federal Interference in the 2026 Midterm Elections

Tuesday, September 16, 12:15pm-1:15pm PT, Webinar

Register here.

Ben Haiman, UVA Center for Public Safety and Justice, Liz Howard, NYU Law Brennan Center for Justice, and Stephen Richer, Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation, Harvard Kennedy School

Richard L. Hasen, moderator (Director, Safeguarding Democracy Project, UCLA)

UCLA School of Law is a State Bar of California approved MCLE provider. This session is approved for  ​1  hour of MCLE credit. 

Lessons from the 2024 Elections for 2026 and Beyond: A Conversation with Nate Persily

Tuesday, October 7, 12:15pm-1:15pm PT, Room 1337 UCLA Law and online

Register here for in-person. Lunch will be provided.

Register here for Webinar.

Richard L. Hasen, Director, Safeguarding Democracy Project, UCLA and Nate Persily, Stanford Law School

UCLA School of Law is a State Bar of California approved MCLE provider. This session is approved for ​1 hour of MCLE credit.

Redistricting and Re-Redistricting Controversies and the 2026 Elections

Thursday, October 16, 12:15pm-1:15pm PT, Webinar

Register here.

Guy-Uriel Charles, Harvard Law School, Moon Duchin, Director, Data and Democracy Research Initiative, University of Chicago, Michael Li, NYU Law Brennan Center for Justice, and Nicholas Stephanopoulos, Harvard Law School.

Richard L. Hasen, moderator (Director, Safeguarding Democracy Project, UCLA)

UCLA School of Law is a State Bar of California approved MCLE provider. This session is approved for ​1 hour of MCLE credit.

Media, Social Media, and the Changing Election Information Environment in 2026

Thursday, October 30, 12:15pm-1:15pm PT, Webinar

Register here.

Co-sponsored by the Institute for Technology, Law & Policy

Danielle Citron, UVA Law School, Brendan Nyhan, Dartmouth College, and Amy Wilentz, UCI Emerita 

Richard L. Hasen, moderator (Director, Safeguarding Democracy Project, UCLA)

UCLA School of Law is a State Bar of California approved MCLE provider. This session is approved for ​1 hour of MCLE credit.

The Supreme Court, the Voting Rights Act, and the 2026 Elections

Tuesday, November 18, 12:15pm-1:15pm, PT, Webinar

Register here.

Ellen Katz, University of Michigan Law School, Lenny Powell, Native American Rights Fund, and Deuel Ross, Legal Defense Fund

Richard L. Hasen, moderator (Director, Safeguarding Democracy Project, UCLA)

UCLA School of Law is a State Bar of California approved MCLE provider. This session is approved for ​1 hour of MCLE credit.

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“Trump Family Profits Even With Tepid Launch of Crypto Tokens”

NYT:

The Trump family’s cryptocurrency venture known as World Liberty Financial had a tepid first day of open-market trading on Monday, surging in value initially before losing most of those gains.

But because of an unusual insider arrangement, the Trump family was still assured a considerable payday as its expanding universe of crypto ventures continued to break norms for business dealings by presidential families.

The big event on Monday was the start of exchange-based trading of World Liberty Financial’s cryptocurrency token, which is traded as $WLFI. It was created last October by the Trump family and its partners, who include Zach Witkoff, the son of Steve Witkoff, the Middle East envoy for President Trump.

But until this week, the World Liberty organizers did not allow the token to be traded on public markets, meaning that after the 35,000 original buyers purchased a total of about $550 million worth of the tokens through this spring, they could not easily sell them. The organizers voted in July to lift that restriction.

That set the stage for the token’s trading debut on Monday on some of the world’s biggest cryptocurrency exchanges, including Binance, Bybit and OKX.

The original buyers were allowed to cash out of as much as 20 percent of their purchases, and some of them apparently did just that. Many of these original buyers had purchased the World Liberty token at a fraction of the price it entered the market with on Monday, meaning they were in line for considerable profits.

The price of the token started Monday at 8 a.m. at 20 cents and surged in the first five minutes to as high as about 40 cents.

It then fell rapidly, settling at about 22 cents as of 5 p.m., lower than many followers of World Liberty, at least on social media, had expected.

To help prop up the trading price, one major $WLFI holder, Justin Sun, announced on Monday that he had no immediate plans to sell his tokens. Mr. Sun had been targeted by securities investigators during the Biden administration, only to see his case frozen once Mr. Trump returned to office.

The Trump family itself controls about 22.5 billion of the $WLFI tokens, suggesting that its holdings as of Monday afternoon were worth about $5 billion, making it one of the most valuable Trump assets, worth far more than its real estate holdings, such as its hotels and golf courses.

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“Democrats face an increasingly frustrated base over redistricting”

Politico:

Democrats are scrambling to keep their nascent crusade against President Donald Trump’s national redistricting push from fizzling out.

House Democrats are considering establishing an organization to raise and spend for their remapping efforts as they look to counter an aggressive Republican move that could determine control of the chamber next year, according to three people granted anonymity to describe private conversations. And House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has privately discussed redistricting with blue-state governors, according to another person.

The Center for American Progress is urging blue states to abandon their independent redistricting commissions. And, through private strategy sessions and public appeals, Texas House Democratic Caucus Chair Gene Wu is asking Democrats across red and blue states to take a no-holds-barred approach to resisting GOP redistricting. Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin praised Wu during a meeting in Minneapolis last week for “igniting a national movement within this party.”

“This is an all-out call to arms,” Wu, who helped lead Texas Democrats’ quorum break, said in an interview. “That chorus of ‘everyone needs to get off their ass and do something’ is growing louder and louder. And more and more elected Democrats who are seen as doing nothing — their commitment to our country is going to be questioned.”…

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“Already Pardoned by Trump, Jan. 6 Rioters Push for Compensation”

Bizarro World continues:

The rioters who attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, secured a shocking double victory this year.

President Trump granted them clemency for their crimes on his first day back in the White House, and in the months that followed, he allowed his Justice Department to purge many of the federal agents and prosecutors who sought to hold them accountable.

But even though the president has given the rioters their freedom and has taken steps toward satisfying their desire for retribution, they are asking for more. In the past several weeks, the rioters and their lawyers have pushed the Trump administration to pay them restitution for what they believe were unfair prosecutions.

On Thursday, one of the lawyers, Mark McCloskey, said during a public meeting on social media that he had recently met with top officials at the Justice Department and pitched them on a plan to create a special panel that would dole out financial damages to the rioters — much like the arrangement of a special master to award money to the victims of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

The panel, which Mr. McCloskey called a “voluntary nonjudicial resolution committee,” would consider rioters’ cases individually, he said, then assign them sums according to harms they had purportedly suffered at the hands of the federal government.

Mr. McCloskey said that he wanted the panel to be overseen by Jeanine Pirro, who runs the federal prosecutors’ office in Washington that took the lead in filing charges against nearly 1,600 rioters who joined in the Capitol attack.

“The only thing I can do as your lawyer,” he told the rioters who were at the online meeting, “is to turn your losses into dollar bills.”

Neither Ms. Pirro nor a spokesman for the Justice Department responded on Sunday to messages seeking comment on Mr. McCloskey’s plan, and it remains unclear how seriously top administration officials are taking it….

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California Legislature Moves to Allow Gig Workers to Engage in Collective Bargaining After California Appellate Court Accepted the Argument in Our Amicus Brief in the Prop. 22 Case That Prop. 22 Could Not Bar Legislature from Doing So

This is gratifying. Back in 2022, I filed an amicus brief in the California Court of Appeal with Professors Joey Fishkin and Franita Tolson, along with co-counsel Kathryn Eidmann and Mark Rosenbaum of Public Counsel. We did not take a position on the main question in the lawsuit: whether an initiative could mandate that California gig workers like Uber drivers could be treated as independent contractors for purposes of California workers’ compensation law. Instead, we focused only on the provision that would bar the California legislature from passing a law allowing gig workers to organize to engage in collective bargaining.

From our brief:

Amicus California Election Law Professors has reviewed the parties’ briefing and writes to address a single issue on which the parties disagree: whether a voter initiative legislating on one subject may constitutionally hamstring the ability of the California Legislature to pass legislation on a different but related subject.

If this court approves the “amendment” limitation on the Legislature’s lawmaking power contained in Proposition 22—a limitation that appears to be unprecedented in the history of California initiatives—it will work mischief and provide a roadmap for future initiatives to upset the delicate balance between legislative powers given to the People of the State of California and those given to the Legislature. It would allow a bait and switch in which voters pass an initiative on Subject but the fine print will unconstitutionally prevent or limit the Legislature’s ability to legislate on Subject B. It will allow the trampling of political and civil rights without recourse to otherwise-permissible legislation. 

Thus, if this Court approves the structure of this initiative, we can expect something like an initiative cutting certain insurance rates but containing a limitation on “amendments” making it nearly impossible for the Legislature to impose penalties for unfair insurance practices, or an initiative creating affordable housing opportunities but containing a limitation on “amendments” preventing the Legislature from overriding zoning rules in California cities. 

In Proposition 22, California voters were told that initiative approval meant treating “gig workers” such as Uber drivers as independent contractors rather than employees for purposes such as workers’ compensation laws. But the substance of the initiative was silent on whether gig workers could have someone represent them collectively to do things like bargaining over working conditions. No provisions in the initiative limit collective bargaining and the initiative’s statement of purposes says absolutely nothing about collective bargaining rights. And yet deep in Proposition 22’s fine print (on the bottom of page 8 to the top of page 9 of a 10-page measure), in the guise of providing limitations on “amendments,” the measure bars the Legislature from enacting any law governing the collective bargaining rights of gig workers unless seven-eighths of the Legislature agrees, a nearly insurmountable margin for any controversial measure. 

If Proposition 22’s proponents wanted to bar entities from assisting gig workers in collective bargaining, they should have included a provision doing so in the substantive provisions of the initiative. Perhaps the proponents did not do so because a proposal to prevent collective action by gig workers could have been politically unpopular, making the measure less likely to pass. 

So proponents—leading ride-share and app companies who benefit financially from a non-organized workforce—tried instead to achieve the same aims indirectly by hamstringing the Legislature from passing collective bargaining legislation related to gig workers. They styled separate legislation on the topic of gig workers’ collective bargaining rights as an “amendment” to Proposition 22, and then subjected such an “amendment” to an onerous seven-eighths supermajority requirement. Such a structure in a voter initiative appears unprecedented among California initiatives. 

As explained below, the structure of Proposition 22 violates the separation of powers contained in the California Constitution. Although Article II, section 10(c) of the Constitution gives initiative proponents the ability to say that the Legislature may not offer amendments (or must meet supermajority requirements to offer amendments) on the same subject as that of the initiative—a requirement necessary to ensure that the Legislature does not pass laws nullifying provisions in voter-approved initiatives—the Constitution does not give initiative proponents the ability to say that the Legislature may not offer legislation (or must meet supermajority requirements to offer legislation) on a different but potentially related subject. 

This Court should hold that the portion of Proposition 22 requiring seven-eighths legislative approval for laws regulating the collective bargaining rights of gig workers is unconstitutional. Because the drafters of Proposition 22 engaged deliberately in a manipulation of the initiative process, this Court should hold invalid all of Proposition 22 despite its severability clause. Without such a strong remedy, there will be no penalty for trying this gambit again; the worst that will happen is that the offending “amendment” will be excised from the measure. At the very least, this Court should declare the portion of the measure limiting legislative power unconstitutional and unenforceable. 

A ruling against the “amendment” gambit contained in Proposition 22 will ensure that initiative proponents cannot limit legislative power through the back door. It will confirm that legislatures retain the authority to pass legislation on topics that are related to, but distinct from, those an initiative actually covers. In that way, it will maintain the proper balance between the People and the Legislature in passing legislation. 

The appeals court agreed with us, and the Prop. 22 proponents did not appeal from this aspect of the intermediate court’s ruling. When the case went to the California Supreme Court, the court upheld the basic part of the initiative, but did not disturb this ruling of the Court of Appeal.

And how, we can see the fruits of this argument, via the Los Angeles Times:

Gov. Gavin Newsom and California lawmakers on Friday announced a landmark deal with Uber and Lyft to allow hundreds of thousands of rideshare drivers to unionize and bargain collectively while still being classified as independent contractors.

The compromise between labor unions and the Silicon Valley companies, backed by Newsom, Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas and Senate Pro Tem Mike McGuire, would advance a collective bargaining bill through the Legislature along with a bill backed by Uber and Lyft that would significantly reduce the companies’ insurance requirements.

The deal is a major development in the years-long tussle between organized labor and Silicon Valley over rights for independent contractors…..

The deal marks a new chapter in nearly a decade of tension between technology companies and state lawmakers over the employment status of the tens of thousands of Californians who do gig work for app-based companies.

“This moment has been a long fight for over a decade in the making,” said Tia Orr, the executive director of SEIU California.

After the California Legislature in 2019 rewrote employment law in 2019, clarifying and limiting when businesses can classify workers as independent contractors, Uber and Lyft went to the ballot in California to exempt their drivers.

When California voters passed Proposition 22, the ballot measure funded by Uber and Lyft, in 2020, drivers were classified as independent contractors and, under federal law, do not have the right to organize. Prop. 22 also explicitly barred drivers from collectively bargaining over their compensation, benefits and working conditions.

But SEIU California argued that court decisions over Prop. 22 left an opening for the state Legislature to create a process for drivers to unionize.

Earlier this year, Assemblymember Buffy Wicks (D-Oakland) and Marc Berman (D-Menlo Park) introduced the collective bargaining bill, AB 1340, which Uber and Lyft initially opposed.

The bill allows drivers to negotiate their pay and other terms of their agreements with the companies and exempts workers from the state and federal antitrust laws that normally prohibit collective action by independent contractors.

Under federal law, employees in the U.S. can unionize by holding an election or reaching a voluntary agreement with their employers for a specific union to represent them.

The process for California Uber and Lyft drivers would be somewhat different. The bill says drivers can select a bargaining representative by collecting signatures from at least 10% of active drivers, then petitioning the state’s Public Employment Relations Board for a certification…..

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“Redistricting Push Creates Chaos for Incumbents in Both Parties”

NYT:

When President Trump set out to force a gerrymander in Texas that would help Republicans keep control of the closely divided House, he argued it was a simple matter of fairness.

“We are entitled to five more seats,” the president said this month.

He got what he wanted from Texas, where the governor on Friday signed a redistricting plan. But the consequences may not be so simple.

With California Democrats immediately retaliating with their own re-engineering that could potentially swing up to five seats in the opposite direction, a redistricting arms race is quickly spreading across the country. That has become a major headache for incumbent members of Congress in both parties, who are concerned about changes to districts they have spent years — some of them decades — figuring out how to win.

On paper, the changes that have been approved or are under discussion could potentially give Republicans a leg up of six to seven seats in what is expected to be an uphill fight to keep control of the House. But redistricting can deliver unpredictable results, and it is uncertain whether this one will ultimately pan out the way either party hopes.

What is clear is that it has created confusion in the already volatile battle for congressional power, with no clear outcome guaranteed for Republicans or Democrats.

“They’re clearly counting on Democrats not forcefully responding,” Representative Hakeem Jeffries, Democrat of New York and the minority leader, said in an interview. “We are going to unleash righteous hellfire on them until the cheating scheme ends.”

Some Republicans believe it never should have started.

“The simplest solution here is just to say, ‘Enough is enough, and let’s not do that in any state,’” said Representative Kevin Kiley of California, who is one of five Republican members of Congress in the state at risk of losing their seats if voters approve Democrats’ redistricting plan this fall.

“It’s a pretty tortured logic to say we ought to do something worse because they’re doing something bad,” Mr. Kiley said of California Democrats’ plan, which aims to counter Texas Republicans’ partisan redistricting effort. “That being said, I don’t like what’s going on in Texas. I don’t think that should be happening anywhere.”…

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“Trump Says He Will Sign Executive Order Mandating Voter I.D.” (And No, He Doesn’t Have the Power to Mandate Voter ID)

NYT:

President Trump said late Saturday that he would issue an executive order to require voter identification for all U.S. elections, a continuation of his efforts to overhaul the nation’s election laws, which he has long attacked and falsely blamed for his 2020 election loss.

In a post on Truth Social, Mr. Trump said, “Voter I.D. Must Be Part of Every Single Vote. NO EXCEPTIONS! I Will Be Doing An Executive Order To That End!!!” He did not provide further details about the order.

He also reiterated his intention to restrict mail-in voting except for those who are very ill or serving far away in the military, as well as his opposition to voting machines.

The announcement signals Mr. Trump’s latest effort to influence election laws using an executive order, something that he has dubious authority to do. The Constitution gives the president no explicit authority to regulate elections. Rather, it gives states the power to decide the rules of elections, oversee voting and try to prevent fraud. It gives Congress the ability to override state laws on voting. Any executive order from the president regarding elections is likely to see immediate legal challenges….

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“If Redistricting Goes as Expected, Which Party Will Come Out Ahead?”

Nate Cohn for the NYT:

The next phase of the redistricting war is starting to come into focus.

Indiana, Missouri, Ohio and perhaps Florida — all Republican-controlled states — seem likely to join Texas and California in attempting to redraw their congressional maps, according to my New York Times colleagues. By their tally, Republicans could carve out up to seven more House seats where they would be favored to win.

It’s too soon to be sure if these states will follow through, let alone whether it would mark the end of this cycle’s redistricting battles. Other states could join; a legal challenge to Utah’s map and a challenge to Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act also loom. But suppose that this is where the redistricting war goes next, and where it ends. If so, how much would the new maps tilt the playing field toward Republicans?

Ultimately, the most important question is whether redistricting prevents the party that wins the national popular vote from winning control of the House. If the popular vote winner is still likely to prevail, then gerrymandering, however odious, hasn’t necessarily left one party at an undemocratic disadvantage overall.

By this measure, the House map was fundamentally fair in 2024: Despite plenty of gerrymandering, the winner of the popular vote was reasonably likely to win the most seats. But if the new maps are enacted in all of these states, Democrats will need to win the national popular vote by two or three percentage points to be favored to retake the House, according to projections based on recent congressional and presidential election results.

A two-to-three-point structural advantage for the G.O.P. is meaningful, but pretty modest. With Democrats leading by four points in the national generic ballot polls today, the party would still be favored to win next year’s midterm election. The Republicans wouldn’t stand much of any chance at all of surviving a so-called “wave” election, like in 2018, when Democrats won the House popular vote by seven points.

But while Democrats would be favored if the election were held tomorrow, the race for the House would be significantly more competitive on the new maps. Even if the Democrats won, the likeliest outcome would be a piecemeal seat-by-seat battle in which control of the chamber would come down to a fairly small number of seats. The race might not be called for days. Democrats wouldn’t have much margin for error: A few mediocre Democratic recruits, some ill-timed retirements, an unexpected demographic shift or even plain bad luck in contests with razor-thin margins could be enough to give Republicans control even if the G.O.P. loses the popular vote by a modest margin….

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