“Why Democrats Could Win the Redistricting War”

redistricting

Nate Cohn for NYT’s The Tilt: Republicans have had an advantage in this year’s redistricting wars because they control the redistricting process in states with more Democratic-held congressional seats.

But this advantage is starting to look shaky — shaky enough that it’s possible to imagine how Democrats could fight the redistricting wars to a draw ahead of the 2026 midterms, and perhaps even win them by the 2028 election.

What’s changed? Much of the Republican advantage stems from the significant constitutional limitations on gerrymandering in blue states. But now Democrats are demonstrating the ability — and the will — to amend blue state constitutions to allow for partisan gerrymandering. If they do so in enough states, they could redraw enough Republican-held districts to turn the redistricting war in their favor. This outcome may still be unlikely, but this week’s elections have made it easier to imagine.

On Tuesday, California voted to amend its state constitution to enact a new Democratic gerrymandered map, potentially costing Republicans up to five districts. The ballot measure was expected to pass; what was more surprising was the margin. While many votes remain to be counted, “Yes” leads on redistricting by 28 points, 64 percent to 36 percent. That’s a wider margin than Kamala Harris’s 20 point-win in the state in 2024….

It’s important to emphasize that Democratic lawmakers haven’t indicated their intention to try to amend state constitutions in any state besides California and Virginia. But if even light blue Virginia is willing and able to amend its constitution to allow gerrymandering, it’s no longer safe to assume that other blue states won’t do the same thing. There have been rumblings of similar efforts in states like New York and Colorado. If those or other efforts ultimately materialize and succeed, it’s possible that Republicans, not Democrats, will ultimately lose the most seats from redistricting by the time the 2028 election rolls around.

It’s too early to lay out a specific redistricting scenario. There are many layers of uncertainty, including which red or blue states will redistrict or amend their constitutions, how far their gerrymanders might go, and the fate of the Voting Rights Act. Together, there’s an enormous range of possibilities.

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“Gavin Newsom Just Proved It: Voters Want Democrats to Fight Fire With Fire”

Real Right to Vote, The Voting Wars

I have written this piece for Slate. It begins:

If Democrats and those on the left want to draw one lesson from the lopsided 64–36 victory of Proposition 50 in California earlier this week, it is that the public understands that these are not normal times, and that to get democracy on track again in the U.S. it may take some drastic, norm-breaking measures. If in the period after Donald Trump’s tenure, Democrats retake control of the House and Senate and secure the presidency, bold election reform that protects both free and fair elections and voting rights must be on the table….

When Democrats had control of both houses of Congress and Joe Biden was in the White House, the House passed and a majority in the Senate passed both the John Lewis Voting Rights Amendments Act and a broader package of election reforms. But Democrats, especially Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, were not willing to make an exception to the filibuster to get a final vote for the legislation in the Senate, meaning that this legislation died. That was a costly mistake.

In an age when voters see Donald Trump breaking norms to solidify his power and move the country toward authoritarianism, trying to just return to normal after Trump and pretend the last decade-plus of threats to democracy did not happen is not a good strategy. It will just leave more openings for the next would-be authoritarian. Proposition 50’s decisive victory shows that voters are enthusiastic about breaking norms, if doing so can achieve national partisan fairness and to counter the many anti-majoritarian features of American democracy.

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“Two Republican Incumbents Will Face Off as Red Turf Shrinks in California”

redistricting

NYT:

A day after California voters shrunk the number of safe Republican House seats through a Democratic gerrymander, two endangered incumbents said they would square off against each other in a high-stakes bid for political survival next year.

Representative Ken Calvert, a Riverside County Republican whose 41st Congressional District was carved up and appended to several neighboring districts, said on Wednesday that he would run for the new incarnation of the 40th District, one of the few friendly territories left for Republicans in California.

He made no mention of the fact that the district was already occupied.

Representative Young Kim, an Orange County Republican, is the current 40th District incumbent, and she said on Wednesday that she would not cede her favorable turf without a fight. The Democratic redraw of congressional maps actually made her district safer for Republicans than it was before — which also made it an attractive life raft.

That means two veteran G.O.P. incumbents will vie for one House seat in a clash that underscores how dire the stakes have become for Republicans in California. It also shows how the redistricting war has sent incumbents scrambling in the middle of the decade, in a way that unlucky members usually only do after a new census….

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The Complaint Filed By Republicans Against the Maps Created by California’s Prop 50 Raising Racial Gerrymandering and Intentional Discrimination Claims Faces an Uphill Battle, Especially Given 2026 Timing

redistricting, Voting Rights Act
You can find the complaint here. The main argument in the case is that plaintiffs engaged in a racial gerrymander by making race the predominant factor in drawing district lines without s compelling reason to to so. The primary… Continue reading