Nate Cohn for NYT’s The Tilt: Republicans have had an advantage in this year’s redistricting wars because they control the redistricting process in states with more Democratic-held congressional seats.

But this advantage is starting to look shaky — shaky enough that it’s possible to imagine how Democrats could fight the redistricting wars to a draw ahead of the 2026 midterms, and perhaps even win them by the 2028 election.

What’s changed? Much of the Republican advantage stems from the significant constitutional limitations on gerrymandering in blue states. But now Democrats are demonstrating the ability — and the will — to amend blue state constitutions to allow for partisan gerrymandering. If they do so in enough states, they could redraw enough Republican-held districts to turn the redistricting war in their favor. This outcome may still be unlikely, but this week’s elections have made it easier to imagine.

On Tuesday, California voted to amend its state constitution to enact a new Democratic gerrymandered map, potentially costing Republicans up to five districts. The ballot measure was expected to pass; what was more surprising was the margin. While many votes remain to be counted, “Yes” leads on redistricting by 28 points, 64 percent to 36 percent. That’s a wider margin than Kamala Harris’s 20 point-win in the state in 2024….

It’s important to emphasize that Democratic lawmakers haven’t indicated their intention to try to amend state constitutions in any state besides California and Virginia. But if even light blue Virginia is willing and able to amend its constitution to allow gerrymandering, it’s no longer safe to assume that other blue states won’t do the same thing. There have been rumblings of similar efforts in states like New York and Colorado. If those or other efforts ultimately materialize and succeed, it’s possible that Republicans, not Democrats, will ultimately lose the most seats from redistricting by the time the 2028 election rolls around.

It’s too early to lay out a specific redistricting scenario. There are many layers of uncertainty, including which red or blue states will redistrict or amend their constitutions, how far their gerrymanders might go, and the fate of the Voting Rights Act. Together, there’s an enormous range of possibilities.