Since the Shift to Primary Elections for Choosing the Parties’ Presidential Nominees, Experience in DC Has Changed from Being a Plus to a Minus

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Bruce Mehlman, at Mehlman Consulting, has put together this data showing a dramatic shift that takes place in the late 1960s/1970s about whether lengthy prior experience in Washington, DC appears to be an advantage or a disadvantage in presidential elections. Although Melman does not make this point, the shift corresponds to the same period in which we shifted from the convention system to the primary-election dominated system for choosing party nominees.

Notice that from 1920-1964, the only winning candidate with no prior DC experience was Dwight Eisenhower, who of course was the Supreme Allied Commander for WWII. Since the shift to primary elections, we’ve elected five presidents with no prior DC experience: Carter, Reagan, Clinton, G.W. Bush, and Trump.

Correlation does not prove causation, of course. But I continue to believe the shift to primary elections for choosing the parties’ nominees is one of the most dramatic, yet underappreciated, changes we’ve made to our democratic processes in the last 50 or so years.

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My Statement: Thoughts on the Despicable Assassination (and Attempted Assassination) of Minnesota Legislators, the Rise in Political Violence in the United States, and the Threats to Free and Fair Elections

authoritarian threats in US, chicanery

Violence directed at innocent people is abhorrent and political violence even more so because it is an attack not just on people but on the institution of democracy itself and an attempt to change government not through elections but through brute force.

Within the past year we have seen and I have condemned as despicable not just one but two assassination attempts on Donald Trump, an arson attack on Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro at home as he celebrated a religious holiday with family, multiple shootings at a local Democratic Party office in Arizona, and more.

Today comes this horrible news out of Minnesota:

A person pretending to be a police officer assassinated a Democratic state legislator in Minnesota and killed the lawmaker’s husband in “an act of targeted political violence,” law enforcement officials said Saturday. The assailant also shot and injured another Democratic lawmaker and his wife, officials said.

State Representative Melissa Hortman and her husband, Mark, died in the attack at their home in the Minneapolis suburbs. State Senator John A. Hoffman and his wife, Yvette, were shot multiple times at their house in a nearby suburb, but remained alive as of Saturday morning.

The authorities were searching for the assailant, who shot at officers as they arrived at one of the lawmakers’ homes. Chief Mark Bruley of the Brooklyn Park, Minn., police said the gunman’s vehicle contained a manifesto and a target list with names of individuals, including the two lawmakers who were shot.

“We must all, Minnesota and across the country, stand against all forms of political violence,” Gov. Tim Walz said.

F.B.I. officials said they had joined the investigation. The Minnesota State Patrol urged people not to attend political protests on Saturday “out of an abundance of caution.” In a statement on social media, the agency posted a photo of papers on a car seat, including one with the words: “NO KINGS,” the name of the anti-Trump rallies scheduled across the nation. Though organizers of several protests said they were canceling their gatherings, thousands of people still gathered outside the State Capitol in St. Paul. Many carried American flags, and some held signs that read, “No Kings.”

We will need to learn more about this shooter, who is still at large as I write this. Easy access to guns and mental illness often are key elements in these situations.

No doubt political polarization raises the stakes over elections. President Trump’s controversial policies have led many across the political spectrum to view politics today an existential struggle for the soul of the United States. That makes some extreme people more likely to commit acts of violence.

President Trump’s recent actions have made things worse. Sending the military into my hometown of Los Angeles as a provocation when they are totally unnecessary to keep the peace and the tackling and handcuffing of my senator, Alex Padilla, when he tried to enter and ask questions at the press conference of DHS Secretary Noem, contribute to an atmosphere of violence and intimidation.

Today, President Trump rightly condemned the Minnesota shootings as “horrific violence” that “will not be tolerated.” It’s a good first step, but he needs to do much more to assure that elected officials and voters can continue to engage in democratically-protected activities free from the risk of violence.

President Trump should start with a nationwide address condemning violence and taking steps to bring people together as a national leader. As someone who has been the victim of political violence himself, he should understand the stakes and the need for empathy, reassurance, and guarantees of free expression and democratic engagement.

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Nate Cohn: “Is There an Opening for a Third Party?”

third parties

NYT’s “The Tilt” newsletter:

Of all of Elon Musk’s explosive X posts last week during his public sparring with President Trump, perhaps the one that received the least attention was his call for a third party.

Even if it had gotten more attention, it still might not have gotten much respect. The idea of a centrist third party has been a bit of a running joke in recent years. Every cycle, someone writes an op-ed calling for a moderate bid from someone like Joe Manchin, it gets widely panned, and nothing happens.

But a serious third-party candidacy may not be a joke for much longer. While there are plenty of obstacles, the conditions for a successful third party could be coming into place.

It’s worth being very clear at the outset: I’m not predicting the emergence of a third party. The conditions for pandas to breed may be in place when you put two pandas in a room, but it doesn’t mean breeding is likely. But once two pandas are in a room, it’s no longer a joke to suggest they might breed.

What’s changed? Over the last few years, a new constituency has begun to emerge. For now, it does not have a home in either party, and it is not clear that either party will be able to easily accommodate its demands. The emergence of this kind of marginalized constituency is the overlooked precondition for a third party. Mr. Musk, while hardly representative, is an example of someone who falls into this group.

What’s the group? It doesn’t have a name, but it favors things like deficit reduction, deregulation, free trade and high-skilled immigration. It may be recognizable by the labels its critics on both the left and right have already assigned: “neoliberals” or “globalists.” (Though, to be fair, this new group doesn’t necessarily idealize markets or oppose government spending.)…

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“New Hampshire jury acquits consultant behind AI robocalls mimicking Biden on all charges”

cheap speech, chicanery

AP:

A political consultant who sent artificial intelligence-generated robocalls mimicking former President Joe Biden to New Hampshire Democrats last year was acquitted Friday of voter suppression and impersonating a candidate.

Steven Kramer, 56, of New Orleans, admitted orchestrating a message sent to thousands of voters two days before the state’s Jan. 23, 2024, presidential primary. Recipients heard an AI-generated voice similar to the Democratic president’s that used his catchphrase “What a bunch of malarkey” and, as prosecutors alleged, suggested that voting in the primary would preclude voters from casting ballots in November.

“It’s important that you save your vote for the November election,” voters were told. “Your votes make a difference in November, not this Tuesday.”

Kramer, who would have faced decades in prison if convicted, testified that he wanted to send a wake-up call about the potential dangers of AI when he paid a New Orleans magician $150 to create the recording. He was getting frequent calls from people using AI in campaigns, and, worried about the lack of regulations, made it his New Year’s resolution to take action….

Kramer also faces a $6 million fine by the Federal Communications Commission, but he told The Associated Press that he won’t pay it. Lingo Telecom, the company that transmitted the calls, agreed to pay $1 million in a settlement in August.

The agency, which did not respond to requests for comment, was developing AI-related rules when Donald Trump won the presidency, but it has since shown signs of a possible shift toward loosening regulations. And though many states have enacted legislation regulating AI deepfakes in political campaigns, House Republicans in Congress recently added a clause to their signature tax bill that would ban states and localities from regulating artificial intelligence for a decade.

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“Trump’s financial disclosures reveal millions in income from guitars, bibles and watches with his name on them”

conflict of interest laws

NBC News:

President Donald Trump continues to enjoy income streams from scores of luxury properties and business ventures, many of which are worth tens of millions of dollars, according to a financial disclosure form filed late Friday.

Released by the Office of Government Ethics, Trump’s 2025 financial disclosure spans 234 pages in all, including 145 pages of stock and bond investments, and is dated Friday with Trump’s signature.

One of the largest sources of income on the form is the $57,355,532 he received from his ownership stake in World Liberty Financial, the cryptocurrency platform launched last year. The form shows that World Liberty’s sales of digital tokens have been highly lucrative for Trump and his family. Trump’s three sons, Donald Jr., Eric, and Barron, are listed on the company’s website as co-founders of the firm….

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“Billionaire Michael Bloomberg opens his wallet for Andrew Cuomo’s mayoral bid”

campaign finance, Plutocrats United

Politico:

Billionaire Michael Bloomberg was no fan of Andrew Cuomo when the two served overlapping tenures as mayor and governor. But on Friday all appeared forgiven, with Bloomberg’s $5 million donation to a super PAC boosting Cuomo’s mayoral bid.

It’s the largest cash infusion yet to the entity and comes in the final 10 days of the Democratic primary to oust Mayor Eric Adams, once a Bloomberg ally. The former mayor — a party hopscotcher who is now a Democrat — is jumping in as Cuomo faces a threat from democratic socialist challenger Zohran Mamdani, whose views on hiking taxes on the rich and criticisms of Israel are anathema to Bloomberg….

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