November 03, 2010

Close Major Races Not Yet Decided/Recount Possible

U.S. Senate, Washington State: Murray leading, likely to win with margin that would avoid recount.

U.S. Senate, Colorado: Bennet ahead by about 7,000 votes with 87% of vote counted; automatic recount triggered if margin about 3,900 votes or less (the Denver Post has called this for Bennett)

U.S. Senate, Alaska: "Write-in" is ahead of Miller by over 13,000 votes. Though Miller has not yet conceded, and there doubtless will be a fair number of votes among the write-ins that election officials will not count for Murkowski (because voter intent was unclear), this one looks like it is beyond the margin of litigation (which is a good thing too, because a close race depending upon voter intent on write-ins could have been very ugly)

Governor, Minnesota: Poor Minnesota. It looks like we'll have an automatic recount, because the Dayton-Emmer contest is within a half of a percentage point. From the Star Tribune story: "'It looks like it's recount part II: And this time it's personal,' said state Republican Party Chair Tony Sutton." Yes, it is a bad horror movie meets "Groundhog Day."

In the end nationally, if things break in the Senate the way they appear to be breaking it will be Democrats with 53 in the Senate to 47 Republicans in the House. The NYT now has Republicans +60 in the House, with 11 seats yet to be determined. That makes my predictions yesterday morning (Senate, 52-48; House, Republicans +65-70) pretty close, and closer than the 54-55 Republican House gain predicted by Nate Silver yesterday at the same time.)

UPDATE: Ned Foley flags Connecticut governor's race as a "yellow alert" state.

Posted by Rick Hasen at November 3, 2010 08:19 AM