WaPo reports that the share of Black adults who say they’re certain to vote in this year’s election is down sharply from 2020 — and down by more than the analogous share for all adults. Lower turnout is always a cause for concern, but the electoral effects of this development (if it occurs) might be muted given evidence that lower-propensity minority voters are more divided in their partisan leanings.

Black Americans’ desire to vote in this year’s election is down sharply compared with four years ago, according to a Washington Post-Ipsos poll conducted last month — a potentially troublesome sign for President Biden, whose ascent was powered by Black voters in 2020 and who has intensified efforts to court them before November’s election.

The poll of more than 1,300 Black adults finds that 62 percent of Black Americans say they’re “absolutely certain to vote,” down from74 percent in June 2020. The 12-percentage-point drop outpaces the four-point drop among Americans overall, from 72 percent to 68 percent.