Tag Archives: Midterm Election 2022

“Voters of color did move to the right — just not at the rates predicted”

November 14, 2022, 5:14 amUncategorizedMidterm Election 2022, voter turnoutTabatha Abu El-Haj

With the caveat that this analysis is based on exit polls–which are not terribly reliable—Politico has an analysis of how the Democratic Party did among different racial and ethnic groups. Key themes:

“[N]ew voters from 2018 and 2020, as well as younger voters” showed up for the Democrats–partially stemming the projections that Democrats would continue to lose voters of color.
“Overall, Black voters remain the most consistent supporters of Democrats — their vote share dropped 4 points since 2018, and just 1 point since the last presidential election, according to preliminary exit polling.”
“[T]he majority of white voters and Native Americans went for Republicans.”
Support for the Democratic Party among AAIP voters appears to be the most volatile and unstable.
“The battle for the Latino vote was more contested than ever this election cycle, between GOP hopes for gains and the group recently becoming the second-largest voting bloc in the country.” My personal take, for what it is worth, is: Latino vote trends in Florida needs to be disaggregated from trends elsewhere for any analysis to be meaningful.

Update: House Races as of Monday, Nov. 14

November 14, 2022, 4:56 amUncategorizedMidterm Election 2022Tabatha Abu El-Haj

Politico has a nice summary of the state of the House.

“There are still 20 seats left uncalled, and Democrats have a legitimate — if narrow — chance of holding the lower chamber as well.
In those uncalled races, Democrats would need to nearly run the table to keep the House. That remains unlikely.”

Still Jim Banks (R-Ind.), possible GOP whip, conceded on “Fox News Sunday” that “[t]his was a very disappointing outcome on election night, not the one we expected,” and acknowledged that “There will be a lot of unpacking the outcome for weeks to come. Did we have the wrong strategy? Why did our message not break through? Why did the voters not buy into the vision and the message that Republicans were selling?”