Andy Craig offers a thorough explanation of why a random third party run is unlikely to be successful, even if the candidate has name recognition and some popularity. Think Joe Manchin or Larry Hogan. Craig could have gone further: It is a stretch to call “No Labels, a would-be centrist third party.” The group is incorporated, funded, and may manage to get on the ballot in all 50 states. It is also apparently supported by a number of Republican elites, men and women (but mostly men) deposed by their party. But it is hardly a party. Unlike the Republican Party that brought Lincoln to power, it lacks party “organization” in any real sense. It lacks partisan boots on the ground, local party organizations, civic allies with ties to ordinary citizens and, most importantly, voters.