A series of Supreme Court rulings gave Democrats a needed jolt to shore up their ranks in the South heading into the pivotal 2024 election. But those rulings also set up a game of musical chairs that could end the political careers of a couple of young Republicans considered future party leaders.
By upholding a section of the Voting Rights Act, the court has essentially forced the legislatures in Alabama and Louisiana to redraw congressional districts in a manner to give Black voters more power, beyond just the single district in each state currently held by Reps. Troy A. Carter (D-La.) and Terri A. Sewell (D-Ala.).
That means at least one lawmaker in each state has to give up safe Republican terrain and get thrust into a district that is, at minimum, highly competitive with a massive amount of new Black constituents who will probably vote overwhelmingly for the Democratic nominee.
These Republicans will have to devote a large amount of time to calling in favors from their allies in the state capitols drawing up the new congressional maps, hoping that when the redistricting music stops they will end up sitting in a safe GOP seat.
“That all comes down to one thing,” said Trey Nix, a Democratic consultant from Alabama with a focus on Southern races. “Who does the legislature hate the most?”
Democrats and Republicans agree that the most powerful figures in these delegations are the safest, both because geographically their districts are far enough away from the area where the new districts will be drawn and because of their long-standing ties to their states’ power brokers.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), who represents the area south and east of New Orleans, will not be affected. Nor will Rep. Robert B. Aderholt (R-Ala.), a powerful member of the House Appropriations Committee, nor will Rep. Mike D. Rogers (R-Ala.), chairman of the House Armed Services Committee.
Those Republicans who are most in jeopardy include some of the party’s newer power players who have attracted attention from party leaders and shown potential for bigger roles down the road.