You can find the complaint here. The main argument in the case is that plaintiffs engaged in a racial gerrymander by making race the predominant factor in drawing district lines without s compelling reason to to so. The primary allegations concern what the mapmaker for the Legislature said about protecting Latino voting power in the new district lines, something that the state would be required to do to to comply with Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.

If partisanship, preserving communities of interest or other factors predominated when the Legislature drew the lines enacted via Proposition 50, then the case would fail on the first prong. Seems like this was a very partisan process, so there’s a good chance the case would fail on this prong. If we get to the second prong, the state could try to defend by saying the districts were drawn race consciously to comply with the Voting Rights Act.

There is also a brief set of claims in here that the Legislature drew lines to intentionally discriminate against Latinos. That claim is supported by no real evidence and I don’t expect it to go anywhere.

Plaintiffs will likely seek a preliminary injunction and have asked for a three-judge court. They will likely want a preliminary injunction hearing quickly. It may not happen quickly, and as we get closer to the election, the Purcell Principle, which has been applied to similar challenges in Louisiana and Alabama, tells courts not to make changes to districts in the period close to the election. Although applying Purcell typically has benefitted Republicans could benefit Democrats in this instance.

If the district court denies the injunction, plaintiffs could try to get emergency relief from the Supreme Court.

Jane Timm for NBC News:

Louisiana’s Republican-controlled Legislature passed two bills Wednesday to delay the state’s spring elections, a move designed to give them time for a possible redraw of the congressional map if the U.S. Supreme Court weakens a key provision in federal voting law.

The measures move the 2026 spring elections to May 16 and June 27, back from April 18 and May 30. The legislation passed in a special legislative session that was called the day after Louisiana argued a case before the Supreme Court over its current map, in which Republicans control four of the six districts.

“We pray that the Supreme Court brings us clarity and does so in an expedient manner. The situation we find ourselves is not typical, so it’s not unreasonable to think the Supreme Court might issue an opinion before the typical June,” state Rep. Gerald “Beau” Beaullieu, a Republican, said.

“We do not know when they will respond, nor the decision they will render, but we do know we have a little bit more time left on the calendar,” he continued.

The case concerns Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, a critical component of the landmark voting rights law. The provision bars the government from denying or limiting voting rights based on race, color or language minority. It’s been used to force Louisiana lawmakers to draw two majority-Black districts in a state where Black Americans make up about one-third of the population….

Nearly 70 districts are protected by Section 2 across the country, according to Nicholas Stephanopoulos, an election law expert and professor at Harvard Law School.

Stephanopoulos said he expected that Southern states with Republican trifecta control would try to eliminate those protected districts, which tend to elect Democrats.

“This would sort of introduce a structural, pro-Republican bias into the House that hasn’t been there for at least the last few years,” he said. “It would decimate minority representation in the House.”

Stephanopoulos added that it could lead to the first substantial drop in minority representation in Congress since the 1880s….

Paul Kane for WaPo:

The fight for House control in next year’s midterm elections has shifted into unfamiliar terrain: state capitals and courthouses.

Rather than recruiting candidates and conductingearly fundraising, political operatives on both sides are focused on drawing new, mid-decade congressional maps. Instead of waiting forevery-10-year census figures to come out, both parties are engaged now in an arms race in up to a dozen state legislatures.

And depending on the partisan leanings of the emerging proposals, lawsuits from Democrats or Republicans have already started, and more are likely to come.

Republicans have been more aggressive so far, but Democrats are trying to play political catch-up in states where they dominate the legislature and typically have their party’s governor in place….

Despite so much talk, there’s a distinct chance that once all the dust settles next year, the new maps will add up to only a handful of additional seats for Republicans. In addition to a redistricting referendum driven by California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) that could help Democrats gain up to five seats, Democratic-dominated legislatures in Illinois and Maryland are considering drawing up lines to help their party.

If all the back-and-forth math is confusing, the Cook Political Report With Amy Walter is frequently updating a “redistricting tracker” for the latest developments and analysis, with a simple estimate at the top. Erin Covey, the top analyst on House races, wrote that the “likeliest scenario” would give Republicans an additional six to nine seats to add to their very slim majority of three seats.

Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales estimates a similar range.

“The best case redistricting scenarios for each party look like Republicans gaining a significant advantage in 14 seats they don’t currently hold, and Democrats gaining a significant advantage in seven seats they don’t currently hold,” Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor for Inside Elections, wrote in September.

These analyses do not account for a perhaps bigger long-term loss for Democrats, as a conservative Supreme Court majority increases the likelihood that the Voting Rights Act could be tossed aside. The current law has led to many majority-Black districts in the South, and its gutting could cost Democrats a dozen or so seats, with most of those coming in the 2028 elections….