Paul Kane for WaPo:

The fight for House control in next year’s midterm elections has shifted into unfamiliar terrain: state capitals and courthouses.

Rather than recruiting candidates and conductingearly fundraising, political operatives on both sides are focused on drawing new, mid-decade congressional maps. Instead of waiting forevery-10-year census figures to come out, both parties are engaged now in an arms race in up to a dozen state legislatures.

And depending on the partisan leanings of the emerging proposals, lawsuits from Democrats or Republicans have already started, and more are likely to come.

Republicans have been more aggressive so far, but Democrats are trying to play political catch-up in states where they dominate the legislature and typically have their party’s governor in place….

Despite so much talk, there’s a distinct chance that once all the dust settles next year, the new maps will add up to only a handful of additional seats for Republicans. In addition to a redistricting referendum driven by California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) that could help Democrats gain up to five seats, Democratic-dominated legislatures in Illinois and Maryland are considering drawing up lines to help their party.

If all the back-and-forth math is confusing, the Cook Political Report With Amy Walter is frequently updating a “redistricting tracker” for the latest developments and analysis, with a simple estimate at the top. Erin Covey, the top analyst on House races, wrote that the “likeliest scenario” would give Republicans an additional six to nine seats to add to their very slim majority of three seats.

Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales estimates a similar range.

“The best case redistricting scenarios for each party look like Republicans gaining a significant advantage in 14 seats they don’t currently hold, and Democrats gaining a significant advantage in seven seats they don’t currently hold,” Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor for Inside Elections, wrote in September.

These analyses do not account for a perhaps bigger long-term loss for Democrats, as a conservative Supreme Court majority increases the likelihood that the Voting Rights Act could be tossed aside. The current law has led to many majority-Black districts in the South, and its gutting could cost Democrats a dozen or so seats, with most of those coming in the 2028 elections….