Marc Ambinder quotes a Democratic Party official asking what the party has to lose by holding a mail-in primary in Florida. Here are the top three risks:
1. An election meltdown. As I have noted,”there’s something especially worrisome about rolling out a new system for counting votes for the first time in a presidential contest. It is like debuting your new play straight on Broadway.” Dan Tokaji has raised similar and additional administrability concerns. A meltdown could well backfire on the Democrats, making Floridians less likely to vote for a Democrat in the fall, and tarnishing even further the reputation of Florida.
2. The specter of vote fraud. Any time voting takes place outside the voting booth, there is the chance of a vote buying arrangement. As I have explained, absentee ballot fraud was rampant enough for a court to void the Miami mayor’s race of 1997. We can also expect that the loser of the contest will have an incentive to claim fraud as a way of trying to undermine the results, much like what may be happening with the Texas caucus right now.
3. Undermining the ability of the DNC to insure order on the primary process. It would be quite ironic if Florida, despite having broken the rules, would get to hold a final primary that the media (and perhaps the candidates) will bill as the decisive contest to sway the superdelegates (as in, whoever can win in Florida deserves to take on John McCain in November). What incentive will this create for states in 2012 asked to abide by the Democratic party rules for the timing of primaries and caucuses?
Now Democrats may decide to go forward with this contest anyway, if the alternative is seating the delegates from the earlier contests. As I’ve said, “Yes, we had a contest, but it was a contest run under unusual rules….Candidates were not allowed to campaign, and voters were told by the D.N.C. their votes wouldn’t count. That kind of election doesn’t comport with our usual democratic norms.” The Democrats are in a tough spot, and I’ve become more convinced that the 50-50 delegate split makes the most sense.