From today’s NY Times survey on the state of early voting:

In North Carolina, Democrats have a wide lead in the number of ballots cast so far, with 43 percent to Republicans’ 31 percent. But because the state significantly curtailed early voting, Democrats have lagged behind their 2012 participation rate, while Republicans are running ahead. As more polling places open, Democrats are catching up to their 2012 rates.

“They keep eating that deficit away,” said J. Michael Bitzer, a professor of political science at Catawba College.

Mr. Bitzer said there are other warning signs for Mr. Trump: Women have cast 56 percent of the votes in North Carolina so far, and rural voters are slightly behind their 2012 participation rates.

The nagging question for Mrs. Clinton is whether Democrats can bolster black turnout, which is down 17 percent so far, Mr. Bitzer said. “That’s the biggest concern for her,” he added.

Readers may recall that in 2013 North Carolina cut the number of days of early voting from 17 to 10, but required all sites in each county to be open at the same time. When the 4th Circuit struck down the cutback to 10 days, this restored the 17 days of early voting, but gave counties discretion to open fewer sites. Some did, and Democrats and voting rights advocates argued this was done to depress turnout among these groups.

Now, with 10 days left and African American turnout down, the question is whether the losses get made up in this new period. If not, the question will be how much, if any, of the turnout decline is attributable to do early voting changes.