Democracy NC Claims Up to 50,000 Voters “Silenced” by New Voting Restrictions

See this release from Democracy North Carolina.

I’m quite skeptical of the 50,000 figure, based upon how the group explains part of its calculations:

How many voters were blocked by the new law? The number easily exceeds 30,000 and likely reaches 50,000, according to Democracy North Carolina’s initial analysis of reports from election officials, volunteer poll monitors, hotline operators and the media. And that’s not counting the thousands who might have voted before Election Day if the Early Voting period had not been cut by a full week, from 17 to 10 days. One way to measure the impact of the new election rules is by looking at the number of voters who used same-day registration and out-of-precinct voting during the last midterm election:

• In the 2010 general election, 21,410 citizens used same-day registration during Early Voting to register and become first-time voters in their county. In 2014, no one did this.
• In the 2010 general election, 5,756 voters cast out-of-precinct provisional ballots that counted at least in part. In 2014, only 455 out-of-precinct provisional ballots were accepted at least in part.
Bottom line: In 2010, these two provisions allowed 27,166 voters (21,410 + 5,756) to successfully cast ballots. But because of the new law only 455 voters could use them in 2014 – a decrease of more than 26,000 votes.

 

The obvious problem with the logic here is that it assumes that almost all people who would have used same day voter registration or out-of-precinct voting in 2010 simply did not and could not vote in 2014 because the change in the new provision.

The new laws certainly could have depressed turnout. But an analysis will have to be much more nuanced than this to be convincing.

UPDATE: The group responds.

 

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