Sunday’s NY Times had this front page report, “In House Races, More G.O.P. Seats Look Vulnerable.” A snippet: “Over the past week, a handful of once-safe Republican Congressional seats have come into play, and other Republican incumbents are facing increasingly stiff re-election battles, according to analysts, pollsters and officials in both parties. The change amounts to a slight but significant shift in the playing field, and a potentially pivotal change in the dynamics of this midterm election.” Taegan Goddard opines that “[i]t’s safe to say the House of Representatives is in play.”
How is this possible, given what we’ve heard about how effective partisan gerrymanders have been in the states? Is it that redistricters got too greedy, drawing lines with not enough margin for a shift in the national mood from one party to another? And what does this potential shift say about whether court intervention is necessary to promote political competition in the face of such gerrymanders?