My SCOTUS Predictions on the Remaining Big 4 Cases

Here’s my chance to get proven wrong rather quickly (rather than over years, as is the more common way that academics are proven wrong!).  These are listed in order from greatest to least confidence.

Shelby County: 5-4, striking down the coverage formula of the VRA, and inviting Congress to rewrite the coverage formula, which the Court, and everyone else, knows Congress won’t, effectively ending preclearance under section 5 of the Voting Rights Act

Fisher: 4-1-3 with the four conservatives ready to say all affirmative action programs privileging race fail under strict scrutiny, with Justice Kennedy, for himself alone, not willing to go as far (J. Kagan is recused)

Prop. 8: 5-4 dismissal of writ as improvidently granted based on standing (Kennedy with four liberals), with the effect that Prop. 8 is likely banned in CA but the issue continues to percolate in the lower courts

DOMA: Either 6-3 (Kennedy, liberals, Chief) or 5-1-3 (with Chief avoiding merits) finding DOMA unconstitutional as applied.

How much would I bet on getting this perfectly right? Not much.

 

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