After the 2020 Census, Texas Republicans drew lines to protect incumbents instead of maximizing their chances of gaining more seats. In establishing new lines this year, they could give themselves opportunities in several districts. Under the current maps, Republicans hold 25 of Texas’s 38 congressional districts. . . .
Democrats warn that Republicans could lose some of the seats they hold now by moving voters to new districts, particularly if 2026 stirs up a wave of voter opposition to Trump. But the risk for Texas Republicans appears low. Republicans could draw a map for the state that gives them 30 House seats that Trump won by 15 or more percentage points last year, [Cook Political Report’s Dave] Wasserman said. That’s a margin that would protect Republicans even in tough years. . . .
Trump’s Justice Department in a letter this month alleged Texas lawmakers violated the Constitution by considering race when they drew four of the current districts. The letter threatened new litigation, putting pressure on the state to draw new maps. Democrats called the letter from Harmeet K. Dhillon, the head of Justice’s civil rights division, a ruse because Texas officials have testified under oath that they did not take race into account when they developed their maps.