Proponents of ranked-choice voting often say the system will lead to more moderate candidates being elected. I don’t think that’s correct or the right way to put things. RCV makes it more likely that candidates who are the preference of a majority of voters will be able to be elected. If the majority of the electorate is moderate, that will be more moderate candidates. But if a majority of the electorate leans heavily to the left or right, RCV will reward candidates that reflect that.
For a voter whose first choice is one of the two leading candidates in the polls, Cuomo or Mamdani, there wouldn’t seem to be any reason to rank any other candidate, let alone to use all five rankings available. If you are confident your first choice will be one of the top two candidates left standing after any vote transfer takes place, the tabulation process will never get to your second ranked candidate. For those who study the aftermath of this or any other RCV election, that also means one has to be careful about what meaning to give to the number of people who rank only one candidate or do not use all their ranking power. If someone ranks only one of these top two candidates, it doesn’t necessarily mean that the informational burden was too high or that they were indifferent as between the other candidates. If you think the polling data is likely to be in the roughly correct ballpark, it can be perfectly rational not to rank candidates other than your first choice.
NYC city does not have a sore-loser law. That means the two leading candidates in the polls could still run in the general election even if they lose in the primary. Mamdani could potentially run as the Working Families Party candidate, which has a ballot line. And Cuomo has secured a ballot line for a party called Right and Deliver. And current Mayor Adams will be running as an independent in the general election, after skipping the Democratic Primary. And we do not use RCV in the general election. Which means a factional candidate, supported by less than 50% of the voters, could end up winning.