“Report: Deficiencies in Recent Research on Ranked Choice Voting Ballot Error Rates”

New from Alan Parry and John Kidd:

  • This report discusses recent research on ranked choice voting (RCV) and ballot error rates. 
  • Several studies indicate that ballot error in RCV elections follows the same patterns as error in non-RCV elections. However, two new studies – More Choices, More Problems? Ranked Choice Voting Errors in New York City and Ballot Marking Errors in Ranked-Choice Voting – claim that RCV increases ballot error rates. We show that both studies suffer from serious methodological and analytical flaws – the former from statistical analysis concerns and lack of suitable control cases, and the latter from false equivalence. 
  • Overall, relatively few ballots in RCV elections contain an error, and even fewer ballots are rejected. For most ballots containing an error, the voter’s intent is clear and the ballot is counted as intended. 
  • Future research should contextualize the impact of RCV more comprehensively, and compare RCV and single-choice voting more carefully. For example, if RCV and single-choice voting differ in terms of ballot error, that difference should be weighed against the fact that RCV makes more ballots count meaningfully. Recent research shows that RCV causes an average of 17% more votes to directly affect the outcome between top candidates. 
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