I have written this piece with Jeremy Stahl for Slate. It begins:

In a surprising move on a lightning quick timetable that is unlikely to stand if challenged, the New York court that presided over the Stormy Daniels hush money criminal trial of Donald Trump on Friday ordered him to be sentenced on January 10, just ten days before Trump will assume the presidency once again. The judge signaled Trump would get an “unconditional discharge,” meaning no jail time or probation, but sentencing would still cement the former and future president as a convicted felon. If Trump seeks an emergency stay blocking the sentencing—and it will not surprise us if he goes all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court if necessary—we expect he will succeed….

Even with jail time off the table, Trump surely would rather not be sentenced for a crime a week or so before he assumes the presidency; that is not just an embarrassment, but would potentially weaken his standing both here and abroad.

If Trump asks, there’s a good chance that an appeals court, and maybe even the United States Supreme Court, will delay the sentencing, effectively until after Trump’s presidency. To begin with, Judge Merchan had months and months to decide to sentence Trump. By waiting until the last minute, he’s putting all the courts in a bind. There is one week until sentencing, and less than three weeks until Trump is back in office again. There’s hardly time to brief and decide this case. An appeals court may decide that Judge Merchan dallied and give Trump the benefit of the doubt….

Judge Merchan’s concern for the rule of law and his condemnation of Trump’s attack on the judiciary are well stated. But his timing puts higher courts in an impossible bind and his ruling is not likely to be well received by a Supreme Court especially protective of presidential power.