The indispensable Charles Stewart:

What does all this mean for 2024? I would highlight three things.

First, pre-processing make a difference, although it makes the biggest difference in the early hours of counting. In 2020, seventeen states prohibited processing of mail ballots before Election Day. In 2024, that number declined to seven. Unfortunately, three are battleground states: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. (Michigan will allow pre-processing in 2024.)

Second, there will be fewer mail ballots in 2024 than in 2020 to be processed on Election Day in these states. At this point before Election Day in 2020, nearly 3 million mail ballots had been sent out in Pennsylvania; as of today, just over 2 million have been sent out for 2024. In Wisconsin, nearly 1.5 million mail ballots had been issued a week before the 2020 election; this year, the number is about 600,000. Thus, even though there will be a lot of mail ballots to process on Election Day, that number will be significantly less than in 2020.

Third, perceptions of vote-reporting speed in 2020 were heavily influenced by the closeness of the count. Georgia, for instance, got a reputation as a slow-counting state even though it was in the middle of the pack after midnight of election night. The long wait until Thursday for Georgia to be “called” for Biden wasn’t because Georgia was slow, but because of a small number of ballots—such as straggling UOCAVA ballots, provisional ballots, and damaged ballots—that needed to be processed before the count was all finished.

There are other things to say about the speed of vote reporting, especially about reporting in non-battleground states, but I will leave that for another time.

One last thing

I will end with this, however. It is important to remember that the reports of votes on election night are just that, reports. Once the initial unofficial reports are issued, localities and states begin the canvass, which confirms the results, resolves discrepancies, and moves toward official results. It is important to get the results reported quickly, but it is even more important for them to be accurate. In the days following the election, I hope the public will watch the canvassing process carefully, but also give election officials the room they need to make sure the results are correct.