Steve Rosenfeld with a Deep Dive Into Voting Changes in Swing States

This is a lengthy piece that’s difficult to excerpt because it goes state by state in detail. Here are are few excerpts:

There is a prevailing view among Democrats and journalists that 2024’s presidential election will have more barriers for voters and complications with vote counts than four years ago….

But this fearful view, which can be seen in news reports, fundraising emails, and statements from voting advocates, is obscuring that the legal landscape in every presidential battleground state — except Georgia — is better than what is being portrayed. That is not to suggest that Trump’s lies and attacks will cease if he again loses or if vote totals are close.

However, consider these facts. Democrats control the election machinery at the state level in every 2024 battleground state except Georgia. The most regressive new election laws adopted since 2020 are in red states — not 2024’s battlegrounds. In 2022’s midterm elections, MAGA candidates for statewide office lost in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. There was no red voter turnout wave. And since the midterms, Democrats have been winning most of the important battleground state court fights where Republicans have tried to impede the process. 

The exception is Georgia, where GOP legislators have seized control of county election boards and appear to be setting the stage to delay or reject the results after voters have turned in their ballots. However, since 2020, many battleground state courts have overruled such attempts by Trump allies. And, equally important, there have been no recent recounts in statewide or federal elections where results were reversed when the initial margins exceeded 450 votes. 

Justin Levitt — a voting rights lawyer and scholar who worked for the Biden White House and US Department of Justice, and has overseen presidential campaign election-protection efforts — has warned against being ensnared by 2024’s overly broad, dark, and fateful narratives. …

With the exception of Georgia, where several post-2020 laws created new hurdles for voting by mail and allowed mass challenges of voter registrations, the legal landscape in the other swing states appears to be shaping up in favor of Democrats. That outcome is the direct result of the election apparatus in those states being run by Democrats and Democratic governors vetoing regressive legislation passed by GOP-run legislatures. 

That more-positive-than-not conclusion holds despite a handful of obstructive new laws, court rulings, and ongoing litigation in the presidential battleground states. 

This assessment is based on reviewing possible impacts of every newly adopted state election law in 2023 and 2024, as compiled by the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) and reviewing nearly 50 voting-restricting lawsuits filed by the GOP since 2022’s elections. 

If one parses NCSL’s compendium, one will see few new restrictions on voting with mailed-out ballots in the battleground states. Most efforts to restrict this balloting option — which 46 percent of 2020’s presidential electorate used in response to the pandemic — have been via GOP-filed lawsuits that mostly have failed, according to this case-by-case listing.

The same holds true with in-person voting before Election Day. There are no substantive new restrictions. Except for Arizona’s new proof-of-citizenship law (which was blocked by a federal appeals court in August), no battleground state has new voter registration or ID requirements. (Voter ID requirements exist in all these states and have been the law for years. Most require documents with a photo ID; however Pennsylvania voters sign an affidavit.)

Three swing states — Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan — have same-day voter registration. 

Thus, for the most part, voter registration, voting by mail, early in-person voting, and voter ID requirements will be the same in 2024’s general election as they were in 2022’s midterms.

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