New analysis from Election Data Services:

With just three years since the Census Bureau released the final 2020 Census results, the Bureau’s new population estimates that were released earlier this week (December 19. 2023) would have changed congressional apportionment in eight states from the final 2020 Census apportionment that was adopted just two-and-a-half years ago. The new data shows the states of Arizona, Florida, Idaho would each gain an additional seat and Texas would gain two additional seats.

On the negative side, the states of Illinois, Minnesota and New York would each lose an additional seat, while the state of California would lose two seats above what they lost, or nearly lost when the 2020 official apportionment was released on April 26, 2021. See table of 2023 apportionment results, page 7 & 8 and map, page 9. This new study reflects just the data as of 2023, and NOT projected forward to 2030 (a separate part of this study, below, does project forward to the end of the decade but also notes many of the problems associated with that approach this early in the decade)….