This Nate Cohn piece for the NYT argues that we should take seriously the results from a number of recent polls which converge on the finding that young voters are more divided on a Biden-Trump contest than in 2020. But this paragraph toward the end of the piece cuts the other way:

“There’s one other way the results might end up “normal,” even with today’s polling: a low youth turnout. Almost all of the polls nowadays are among registered voters, not likely voters, and most of Mr. Biden’s weakness is among disengaged voters on the periphery of the electorate. In the latest Times/Siena polling, Mr. Biden leads by 15 points among young voters who turned out in the midterms, while he trails by three points among young voters who didn’t turn out. If these irregular, disaffected voters simply choose not to vote, Mr. Biden will most likely have a healthy lead with young voters.”