POLITICO has an interesting and potentially significant report on the criteria and methodology No Labels will use in deciding whether or not to back a third-party presidential candidacy. No Labels claims it will field its own presidential ticket only if it believes it has a viable shot of actually winning a three-way race. In the article, its “chief strategist” Ryan Clancy is quoted as seeing a path to victory only if Trump is the Republican nominee: “‘From the polling and modeling that we see today, if it’s any Republican other than Trump, those voters probably’ back the GOP nominee, Clancy said.” To make the implication of this analysis explicit, Clancy added: ““That [would start] to close off the gap or that opening that we see today for the independent ticket.”

I wonder though whether this analysis has it exactly backwards. As I see it, a third-party candidacy is most dangerous to American democracy if Trump rather than anyone else is the Republican nominee. That’s because, like many others, I view Trump as a uniquely severe threat to the future of the Republic if he should manage to regain the White House because of a splintering of the anti-Trump vote between Biden and a third candidate. Thus, it worries me greatly that No Labels is thinking about moving forward with its own ticket only if Trump wins the Republican nomination.

The article also quotes No Labels CEO Nancy Jacobson as disputing the idea that the group’s effort would be a spoiler for Biden and swing the election to Trump: “’What we’re proposing here is more of an independent-moderate, like Ross Perot [who] takes from both’ parties, said Jacobson.”

But I have a very hard time seeing that a No Labels candidacy would pull equally from both Trump and Biden, as she suggests. Consider Joe Manchin, whom the article identifies as the leading contender for a No Labels presidential bid. Under what circumstances would a Manchin candidacy take more votes that otherwise would have gone to Trump rather than Biden? Only if Biden becomes so incapacitated by an old-age infirmity that Democrats must seriously consider replacing him as their nominee, only then could I imagine voters who would vote for Manchin but not Biden over Trump. But if Democrats do need to replace Biden, then I would envision Manchin hurting the Democratic nominee much more than he would hurt Trump.

Consider again the No Labels self-expressed criteria of only running its own candidate because of so many voters who would cast a ballot for any GOP nominee except Trump. Where are all those voters going to go if Trump is the nominee? If No Labels doesn’t run its own candidate, and Biden is the only other option (because these voters surely are not going to vote for Cornel West, to Biden’s left), then Biden is likely to pick up at least some of these not-Trump voters. To be sure, some of them will stay home and not vote at all, but others will vote for Biden, albeit reluctantly. But if No Labels offers Manchin (or someone similar) as an alternative, then it’s easy for these not-Trump voters (who otherwise would vote Republican) to land on Manchin rather than Biden.

Thus, by its own analysis, the No Labels project seems to be setting itself up to serve as a spoiler for Biden’s candidacy, structured to take votes away from him and not Trump. Given the special threat that Trump poses, this article only confirms my fear that No Labels is flirting with disaster.