“Newly gerrymandered districts might hurt Democrats less than you think”

 Marion CampisiTommy RatliffStephanie Somersille and Ellen Veomett for WaPo’s Monkey Cage:

This November, members of Congress will be running in new districts based on the 2020 Census data. So how might the new district maps influence the midterm elections — and perhaps more important, which party wins control of the House?

Of course, many issues will affect that result, from the fact that the president’s party usually loses seats in the midterms, to the Supreme Court Dobbs decision, inflation, and the Trump investigations, and any surprises between now and November. We can’t offer any predictions on those factors. But our research finds that this round of gerrymandering hurt Democrats less than the maps in place during the 2020 elections for the House. Here’s how we know….

How can we calculate and compare the impact of gerrymandering across the whole country? By using a new metric that can give an idea of how many districts each party is winning due to gerrymandering in each state. We call it the “GEO metric,” for Geography and Election Outcomes.

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