Sarah Isgur has a long essay on Texas politics, at The Sweep, which is part of the The Dispatch and behind a paywall. The piece asserts that O’Rourke’s pursuit of small donors in his presidential bid led him to positions that have made him less popular in TX now than he was in his 2018 Senate bid. Polls reportedly show Gov. Abbott with a 47-37 percent lead over O’Rourke at the moment:

Therein lies the problem. Major Democrat donors now understand that demographics alone are not going to win them Texas. They’ll need a candidate who can speak to Dallas Democrats, Tejano Democrats, and everyone in between. That’s the 2018 Beto O’Rourke who lost to Ted Cruz in the closest U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1978. The problem is that O’Rourke then ran for president and online, small-dollar donors weren’t going to get excited about a moderate Democrat. So O’Rourke tried to be the candidate who could also speak to Manhattan Democrats and Silicon Valley Democrats. 

Democrats may well turn Texas blue at some point. When that day comes, people will no doubt say it happened slowly and then all at once. Texas Democrats may not realize it, but 2020 did them a huge favor. Like holding an inner tube underwater, it showed them where the hole was. …

O’Rourke’s 2018 run will be seen as an important marker along that path—but so far, his 2022 run shows that he won’t be the one to cross the finish line.