“‘Decimation’ of competitive seats could unleash climate primaries”

From E&E News, an interesting view on how the decline of competitive seats could affect the politics of climate legislation:

Democrats have fared better than expected in this year’s redrawing of House districts — but that’s not necessarily good news for all the party’s incumbents.

Both parties are redrawing congressional maps to eliminate competitive districts, with some analyses suggesting the number of swing seats could be cut in half.

The same gerrymandering that insulates lawmakers from general election challengers could also empower each party’s most extreme elements, political scientists say. The biggest hurdle to winning most House seats could be surviving the primary.

That means Democrats, who already emerged from the Trump era with a more muscular left wing, could see this decade bring even more clout to environmental groups and other progressive activists waging primary campaigns in the name of more aggressive climate action, some analysts say.

And for Republicans, there could be even less room for lawmakers to break with the climate denial of President Trump, whose endorsement remains the most coveted asset in a GOP primary.

“We’ve seen the real decimation of the already small number of competitive districts that had existed in Congress,” said Richard Pildes, a constitutional law professor at New York University who studies elections and polarization….

Progressives hope that will give them more room to play offense against lawmakers they see as too moderate.

In the Laredo-area’s 28th District, Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) is facing a rematch against Jessica Cisneros, an immigration lawyer who unsuccessfully challenged him in 2020. Cuellar defeated Cisneros by fewer than 3,000 votes….

Progressives are investing heavily in the race, along with the nearby 35th District stretching between San Antonio and Austin. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) has scheduled a rally Saturday with Cisneros and Greg Casar, a candidate for the 35th. The Sunrise Movement has mobilized its members to volunteer for both campaigns.

Cuellar, on the other hand, is among the most moderate Democrats in the House. He’s a booster of the oil industry and one of its top recipients of campaign donations — which he explains by pointing to the sector’s importance for his district….

“The climate crisis is playing a larger role in these contests — specifically the primary contests — because people are living every day, more and more, through life-changing climate disasters,” Bravo said.

“Young people are coming to the realization that a [congressional] majority isn’t enough,” he added. “We need quality representatives that will speak to our lived experience — and representatives that we can hold accountable.”

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