“Districts for a New Decade–Partisan Outcomes and Racial Representation in the 2021 Redistricting Cycle”

Eric McGhee, Mike Migurski, and Chris Warshaw posted this new paper comparing the newly enacted congressional and state legislative district plans to their predecessors. The main findings are:

(1) The national House map is substantially fairer but still nontrivially skewed in a Republican direction.

(2) Commission-drawn plans now do much better than politician-drawn plans in terms of partisan fairness. (This was unclear in past cycles.)

(3) Most of the nationwide drop in competitive House districts is attributable to a handful of Republican-drawn plans (GA, IN, TX).

(4) The AL and SC congressional plans stand out for the poor representation they provide to Black voters.

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