“How do we know Trump’s election fraud claims are bogus? Take a look at Pennsylvania.”

Conservative columnist Henry Olsen takes the time to debunk lies about election fraud in Pennsylvania. Contrary to ridiculous claims about fraudulent ballots in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, turnout increased less in Pennsylvania’s big cities in 2020 than just about everywhere else in the state. (Democratic margins in these cities also declined.)

If Democrats stuffed the ballot boxes in large urban areas in 2020, there would be an unexplained increase in turnout in those areas. The same would be true for areas with higher rates of mail voting if the new practice gave rise to voter fraud.

But that didn’t happen in either case. How do I know? First, I compared the total number of votes cast for president in each county in 2016 and 2020, calculating how much they went up or declined. I then looked at the number of citizens of voting age for each county. This number, calculated each year by the Census Bureau, tells us how many people are theoretically eligible to vote. Together, these data points can tell us what percentage of eligible voters actually cast ballots in 2016 and 2020. If Trump’s fraud theories were true, that share would have increased at a greater rate in counties where the ballot boxes were allegedly stuffed or in those with a larger share of mailed ballots.

Here’s what actually happened: Philadelphia had the second-lowest increase of any of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties, with the share of eligible voters who cast a ballot going up by a mere 2.2 percent. Allegheny County, which contains Pittsburgh, rose by 7.4 percent. That’s smaller than the median rise in turnout for all counties of 8.4 percent. Other big Democratic-controlled counties, such as Erie, Delaware and Dauphin, also had smaller turnout increases than the average county.

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