Paul Waldman WaPo column:

In the 2020 elections, Democrats failed to win control of any new state legislatures and saw their margin in the House of Representatives shrink by more than a dozen seats, an outcome that portended bad things for the party. It seemed to mean that Republicans’ grip on the redistricting process — and their ruthlessness in drawing district lines — would enable them to easily gerrymander their way to a House majority.

As one analyst after another noted, Republicans control more state legislatures and more redistricting processes, while in many states controlled by Democrats, redistricting is done by independent commissions. As a result, Republicans might be able to win the House through redistricting alone, even without increasing their vote share in the 2022 midterm elections.

At least that’s what everyone thought. Until now.

Just in the past few days, the conventional wisdom on redistricting has undergone a dramatic shift. The most informed redistricting experts now say it appears that this process will look more like a wash, or even that Democrats might gain a few seats.

How did this happen? Here are the key factors:

• Republicans had already gerrymandered so aggressively in the post-2010 redistricting that they had limited room to add to their advantage.
• In the relatively small number of states where they had the opportunity, Democrats are gerrymandering with equal vigor.
• In some places, Republicans opted to consolidate their current position rather than take a riskier path that might expand their seats.
• Independent redistricting commissions wound up not hurting Democrats in the way some feared they would.