WSJ. I buy that redistricting will eliminate a good number of recently competitive districts. I don’t buy that competition will necessarily stay low over the course of the coming decade. Many of the recently competitive districts were drawn to be safe but then things happened — people moving in or out, people turning eighteen or dying, people changing their party affiliations. These forces will continue to operate over the next ten years.

A Wall Street Journal analysis finds 12 politically competitive districts in the 22 states that have completed their House maps so far, down from 25 such districts currently. . . .

The Journal defined competitive districts as those in which the margin between President Biden and former President Donald Trump in the 2020 election was within 5 percentage points. Districts were considered safe territory for a party if its presidential candidate won by 15 points or more. The analysis excluded states with a single congressional district and included Georgia, where the House map hasn’t formally become law but is expected to do so.