Rick Hasen links to the new FEC report on federal election spending over time. In addition to reporting the data, the FEC says spending has increased dramatically over time, “particularly after the Supreme Court’s decision in Citizens United.” Spending has of course increased. But if the FEC had paid better attention to its own data, it would see that this statement about Citizens United is not supported by its own data (the FEC reports on spending by campaigns, party committees, and PACs).

The rate of increase in spending from these sources on federal elections was significantly higher before Citizens United than after. Election spending has been going up, of course, but there are many causes for that.

The FEC report does not provide the specific numbers, so I’ve done this by eyeball from the chart the FEC provides in the report. Take a look at presidential elections first. Spending increased dramatically more rapidly before CU than after. We do see one dramatic cause for a very recent huge increase in spending: Donald Trump’s election in 2016, which led to a massive increase in spending in 2020, given the stakes perceived to exist in the most recent election. This is consistent with the exceptionally high turnout in the 2020 election, despite the pandemic: many actors perceived the stakes to be extremely high and spent, as well as turned out, at high levels.

Increases in spending in Presidential Elections:

2000-2004: 33% McCain-Feingold passed in 2002

2004-2008: 43%

2008-2012: 8.7% Citizens United decided 2010

2012-2016: close to flat

2016-2020: 160%

The same is largely true for congressional elections. Again, it is Donald Trump’s 2016 election that leads to a dramatic increase in spending on the 2018 midterms; again, this was also an exceptionally high turnout mid-term election, part of the Trump effect. But spending was going up at a high rate before Citizens United as the data show:

Increases in spending in Mid-Term Congressional Elections:

1998-2002: 14.3%

2002-2006: 37.5%

2006-2010: 36%

2010-2014: 4% Citizens United decided 2010

2014-2018: 49%