Experts on Flaws in Assumptions Made in the AZ “Audit” Report

From The Morning Dispatch (requires a subscription)

Having failed to deliver a Trump win on the recount, the audit’s organizers are moving the goalposts. Experts say their methodology is faulty.

The report claims that “mail-in ballots were cast under voter registration IDs for people that may not have received their ballots by mail, and no one with the same last name remained at that address.” The claim, according to the report, is that 23,344 ballots were “impacted under this condition.” But “comparing voter lists with commercial personator data is a very questionable methodology,” as Douglas Jones, an associate professor of computer science at the University of Iowa, explained to The Dispatch. Jones notes that a change of address with the postal service does not mean a change of voting address. A person, for example, might take a months-long vacation and change an address with the post office, but never change a voting address, Jones explained. “In light of this, finding 23,344 discrepancies out of over 2 million voters is no shock,” Jones said. “That’s 1.1 percent.”

The report also makes an accusation about double voting, alleging that there were potentially more than 10,000 voters who voted in multiple counties. However, as Justin Grimmer, political science professor at Stanford and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, noted in an interview with The Dispatch, the accusation was “sloppily made.” The auditors looked only at the voter name and the birth year (not birth date), so, of course, it’s no surprise that there are multiple people with the same name and the same birth year. In response to this flawed conclusion, Maricopa County officials added on Twitter that “If Cyber Ninjas understood data analysis, they would have performed standard processes to rule out situations that lead to faulty conclusions.”

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