That’s the title of a new article of mine. Here’s the abstract and the link:
What is the most fundamental challenge facing democracies today? One major concern is democratic backsliding, regression, or the rise of “illiberal democracies.” Another concern, closely related, is the rise of “populism,” at least in certain forms, such as those that are fundamentally anti-pluralist and view the “people” as a “moral, homogeneous entity whose will cannot err,” or, in less virulent form, those that express impatience with institutional structures and norms — such as judicial review, independent institutions, or separation of powers — that stand in the way of direct, unmediated expression of the “popular will.”
This essay takes a different perspective. It argues that the deepest and perhaps most enduring challenge to democratic governments across the West that has emerged in recent years is what I call “political fragmentation.” Put briefly, political fragmentation is the dispersion of political power into so many different hands and power centers that it becomes extremely difficult to marshal enough political power and authority for governments to function effectively.
The inability of democratic governments to deliver on the issues their populations care most about poses enormous dangers. At a minimum, it can lead to alienation, resignation, distrust, and withdrawal among many citizens. Worse, it can spawn demands for authoritarian leaders who promise to cut through the dysfunction of the political process. And at an even more extreme, it can lead people to question the efficacy of democracy itself and become open to anti-democratic systems of government.
The first part of this paper describes the ways in which political fragmentation is now affecting most Western democracies, and describes the different forms fragmentation takes today in proportional-representation political systems versus in first-past-the-post ones.
The second part analyzes the causes of fragmentation and asks whether this fragmentation is temporary or more likely to be enduring. This part argues that the communications revolution is a major cause of the political fragmentation of our era. The challenge the communications revolution poses to democratic governments is deeper than is generally recognized, because it goes beyond the now familiar issues of disinformation and conspiracy spreading (though these are serious problems). But the communications revolution might be thought almost inherently to undermine the capacity for legitimate, broadly accepted political authority – the authority necessary to be able to govern effectively in democratic systems.
Most Western democracies are perceived by many of their members to be failing to address the major issues of the day. Political fragmentation makes it all the more difficult to do so. Democracies must figure out how to meet this challenge, lest their inability to deliver effectively on the issues their citizens find most urgent leads to even greater threats to democratic politics.
I have been writing about political fragmentation in the United States for a number of years, including the factors that contribute to it here. This article begins extending that perspective to democracies more generally.