This analysis from Joan Biskupic on emerging Roberts-Kavananaugh-Barrett SCOTUS bloc seems right on.
Indeed, I’ve been telling reporters covering Brnovich (voting rights case) that we could see a similar dynamic much like the 2008 Crawford voter id decision. In Crawford, Justice Stevens created a bloc with Roberts and Kennedy that was more restrained than the Scalia-Thomas-Alito bloc in upholding Indiana’s voter id law. It let some challenges continue to go forward; Scalia would have cut them all off.
That bloc along with the three liberal dissenters in Crawford preserved some voter id challenges. We could see the same thing in Brnovich. Plaintiffs lose, but the middle bloc preserves some Section 2 vote denial claims under the VRA. It’s the best case scenario I envision