In trying to understand how statistics might inform one’s understanding of claims of electoral fraud and inform our understanding of how President Trump lost the election in key swing states, I have looked at the comparisons of voting within Congressional districts. Congressional districts provide an interesting framework because each Congressional district conceptually represents a comparable population of people, although both voter registration and voter turnout will vary across Congressional districts….
This analysis proceeds in two parts. First, it looks at the overall distribution of votes across Congressional districts in key swing states to see if there are aberrational patterns worth noting. None were found. Second, it looks at results on a state-by-state basis to see what the state results can tell us about why President Trump lost and President-Elect Biden won in these states. There appears to be one key lesson from these state-by-state analyses. To the extent that there is a common theme across states, the theme appears to be that President Trump lost because he did not perform as well as Republican Congressional candidates in districts in which Republican Congressional candidates won in these states. Phrased differently, people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates failed to vote for President Trump in the same numbers as they voted for Republican Congressional candidates – resulting in President Trump’s loss to President-Elect Biden in at least three of these swing states. …
As one reflects on the unfounded allegations of electoral fraud that have been rejected by state and federal courts in each of these states, I think one needs to consider what these data suggest. Particularly in jurisdictions like Georgia and Wisconsin, where Republicans garnered more votes than Democrats in the Congressional races, but President Trump managed to lose, these data show that President Trump lost in these jurisdictions because in multiple counties in multiple Republican Congressional districts, dozens or hundreds or thousands of people who voted for Republican Congressional candidates opted not to vote for President Trump and may have opted to vote for President-Elect Biden.
Nothing was stolen. Nothing was taken from President Trump. President Trump lost in these five swing states because he failed to maintain the margin of victory of Republican Congressional candidates in 24 of the 25 Republican Congressional districts, and in fact, garnered fewer votes than the Republican Congressional candidates in 20 of the 25 Republican Congressional districts.