How Would Donald Trump Have Done if All States Used Ranked-Choice Voting?

In the key states we are still waiting on, it looks like Libertarian candidates received considerably more votes than the margins Trump is losing by currently. These numbers can of course change, and don’t assume anywhere near all Libertarian voters would have ranked Trump second — many third-party voters are so alienated from both candidates, they won’t vote for either as a second choice. This year, in addition, some of these might also be protest votes against Trump, from voters who would otherwise vote R but did not want to vote for Trump — further reason they might not have ranked a second choice.

My recollection is that about 50% of third-party voters do vote for a major party candidate as a second choice, when given the option. The nature of the race and the candidates can also change that percentage, of course.

I have not looked to see whether there are states Biden lost by small numbers in which third-party votes went to other candidates on the left, in which the RCV vote transfer might have put Biden over the top.

Here’s the numbers currently (*8.30 am Nov.7):

GA Trump deficit: 7,248 Libertarian Candidate: 61,792

AZ Trump deficit: 29,861 Libertarian Candidate: 47,632

PA Trump deficit: 28,833 Libertarian Candidate: 77,108

Good morning Rob Richie, I’m sure you will be able to tell us whether there is good reason to conclude, once all the numbers are in, whether President Trump would have been re-elected if all states used RCV. Is Jo Jorgensen the Ralph Nader or Jill Stein of 2020?


Comments are closed.