“What if Everyone Had Voted by Mail in 2016?”

Nathaniel Lash for NYT Opinion:

President Trump has made it clear he’s no fan of mail-in voting. While the president claims he’s concerned about rigged elections and stolen votes, Republicans are also worried that mail-in ballots could favor Democrats. A new analysis by Times Opinion suggests that even in an extreme scenario, those fears are unfounded.

If the 2016 election between President Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had been run using universal vote-by-mail, Trump would have still won the presidency, according to the analysis.

The findings are based on research on Colorado voters, which found that vote-by-mail increased voter turnout across all ages, but saw turnout increase more for younger voters. Applying Colorado’s increased turnout across all 50 states gives a rough sense of how a well-executed vote-by-mail campaign could influence election results.

Such a scenario may slightly boost Democratic fortunes in certain states that Trump won. But the analysis also showed Republicans making gains in right-leaning states — such that political tides would have remained unchanged in 2016.

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