Back on October 28, I made the following prediction at Politico‘s “Arena:”
Popular vote percentages: Obama 52, McCain 46
Electoral vote: Obama 364, McCain 174
If Missouri breaks for McCain and North Carolina for Obama, as it currently looks, both the popular vote and electoral college predictions will be right on the money.
However, I also predicted that the biggest surprise would be that Obama carried Missouri (I’d say the biggest surprise turned out to be Indiana) and that the Senate would be 58-42. The outcome is not yet clear, but 58 seems 1 or 2 too high on the Democratic side.