Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood is running for governor of Mississippi this year, and as we’ve noted before, a Jim Crow-era law means that Hood could lose even if he wins the most votes on Election Day. That’s because the state’s 1890 constitution requires gubernatorial candidates to win both a majority of the statewide vote and a majority of the 122 districts that make up the state House.
If no candidate wins both the popular vote and a majority of districts, the state House, where Republicans hold a wide 74-48 majority, then picks a winner from the top two finishers. Given the GOP’s shamelessness in embracing undemocratic outcomes, it’s unlikely they’d choose Hood, even if he wins the most votes. And thanks to Mississippi’s gerrymandered map, which the GOP drew up in 2012, we know it’ll be difficult for Hood to carry 62 House seats. But just how difficult?
To answer that, we can look to the results of Mississippi’s 2015 statewide contests broken down by state House district, which the state has calculated. Because of serious insufficiencies in the data available from the state, Daily Kos Elections has not yet calculated the results of the 2016 presidential race by legislative district, and the state has not published results for the 2015 contests by state Senate district.