Category Archives: election subversion risk

“Brazil’s Former President Was Convicted of Plotting a Coup. What Comes Next?; Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years in prison for conspiring to cling to power after losing the 2022 elections.”

NYT:

Brazil’s former president, Jair Bolsonaro, was sentenced to more than 27 years in prison on Thursday for overseeing a failed coup plot after losing the 2022 elections, a landmark ruling for Latin America’s largest nation.

Mr. Bolsonaro was convicted of orchestrating a vast conspiracy that included overturning the vote, dismantling courts, handing special powers to the military and assassinating the president-elect, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who won the election.

Mr. Bolsonaro denied plotting a coup or planning to kill his political rival. He accused the Supreme Court justice who oversaw his trial, Justice Alexandre de Moraes, of unfairly targeting him and his right-wing movement.

The ruling marks the first time that Brazil, a nation with a long history of coups, has held accountable a leader who tried to subvert its democracy. But it is far from clear whether Mr. Bolsonaro will actually end up behind bars.

His conviction could also worsen the diplomatic tension between Brazil and the United States, which escalated after President Trump’s tried to help Mr. Bolsonaro, an ally, by applying tariffs and sanctions on Brazil….

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I Spoke to NPR’s Fresh Air: “An election law expert weighs in on Trump’s effort to reshape our democracy” (Link to Audio)

Had a great conversation with Tonya Mosley for NPR’s Fresh Air: “Before 2026’s midterms, President Trump wants to ban mail-in ballots and electronic voting machines, and change voting rules. Legal expert Richard Hasen discusses the future of free and fair elections.”

Listen.

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“Michigan dismissal highlights the challenges in prosecuting cases against Trump’s 2020 fake electors”

AP:

 Before the abandoned federal attempt to prosecute Donald Trump for trying to overturn his 2020 election loss, state and local prosecutors brought cases against his fake electors.

The term referred to the people who, in several of the swing states won by former President Joe Biden, declared themselves to be the rightful electors who would vote for Trump in the Electoral College. It was part of Trump’s long-shot bid to push Congress to reject Biden’s electors and throw the election to him.

Democratic prosecutors filed indictments against them before Trump himself was charged by a special prosecutor appointed by Biden’s Department of Justice, making the fake electors the most prominent example of how those who helped Trump faced consequences for their attempt to reverse the election results. Many of those cases have now hit a dead end or are just limping along.

The charges against Trump were dropped after he won the election, following last year’s U.S. Supreme Court ruling granting presidents immunity for much of their conduct in office. While the fake elector cases ground on, several have hit legal roadblocks — most dramatically on Tuesday when a Michigan judge dismissed charges against 15 Republicans who had been charged by that state’s Democratic attorney general, Dana Nessel.

Judge Kristen Simmons said prosecutors had not shown that the defendants intended to defraud the public.

“Right, wrong or indifferent, it was these individuals and many other individuals in the state of Michigan who sincerely believed — for some reason — that there were some serious irregularities with the election,” said Simmons, who was originally appointed by the state’s Democratic governor and then won reelection to the bench.
….

Marian Sheridan, one of the people charged in Michigan whose case was dismissed, said Tuesday that the group’s plan was to act as a “backup” or “lifeboat” in case the election results were overturned.

“We were not fake,” she said. “We were alternate.”

Rick Hasen, a law professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, said such arguments were part of the reason he viewed the fake elector cases as some of the “weaker” criminal ones filed after the 2020 election.

But he said the combination of the failures of those prosecutions, coupled with Trump’s avoiding liability and his pardons of more than 1,500 people convicted of crimes in the cases stemming from the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, are a grim combination.

“All of it fits together to create really bad incentives for a system of free and fair election and peaceful transitions of power,” Hasen said.

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“Trump Administration Quietly Seeks to Build National Voter Roll”

NYT:

The Justice Department is compiling the largest set of national voter roll data it has ever collected, buttressing an effort by President Trump and his supporters to try to prove long-running, unsubstantiated claims that droves of undocumented immigrants have voted illegally, according to people familiar with the matter.

The effort to essentially establish a national voting database, involving more than 30 states, has elicited serious concerns among voting rights experts because it is led by allies of the president, who as recently as this January refused to acknowledge Joseph R. Biden Jr. fairly won the 2020 election. It has also raised worries that those same officials could use the data to revive lies of a stolen election, or try to discredit future election results.

The initiative has proceeded along two tracks, one at the Justice Department’s civil rights division and another at its criminal division, seeking data about individual voters across the country, including names and addresses, in a move that experts say may violate the law. It is a significant break from decades of practice by Republican and Democratic administrations, which believed that doing so was federal overreach and ripe for abuse.

“Nobody has ever done anything like this,” said Justin Levitt, an election law expert at Loyola Marymount University’s law school and a former Justice Department official.

The Justice Department has requested data from at least 16 Republican-controlled states, including Mississippi, Alabama and Texas. It has also sent more formal demands for data to at least 17 mostly Democrat-controlled or swing states, including Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin and New York.

Nearly every state has resisted turning over voter files with private, personally identifiable information on voters like driver’s license numbers or Social Security numbers. Last week, a local judge blocked South Carolina from releasing private voter information to the Justice Department.

In a private meeting with the staff of top state election officials last month, Michael Gates, a deputy assistant attorney general in the civil rights division, disclosed that all 50 states would eventually receive similar requests, according to notes of the meeting reviewed by The New York Times. In particular, he said, the federal government wants the last four digits of every voter’s Social Security number….

Mr. Levitt likened the effort to sending federal troops to bolster local police work. “It’s wading in, without authorization and against the law, with an overly heavy federal hand to take over a function that states are actually doing just fine,” he said, adding that “it’s wildly illegal, deeply troubling, and nobody asked for this.”

In a statement, a Justice Department spokesman, Gates McGavick, said, “Enforcing the nation’s elections laws is a priority in this administration and in the civil rights division.”…

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“Democrats pick members for new GOP-led committee on Jan. 6 Capitol attack”

WaPo:

Democrats named the members of their caucus to serve on a new subcommittee reinvestigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol — a Republican-led probe that threatens to reignite tensions over one of the most divisive events in American political history.

Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) announced Monday that Reps. Eric Swalwell (D-California), Jared Moskowitz (D-Florida) and Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) will participate in the eight-member committee and Jamie Raskin (D-Maryland) will serve as an ex officio member….

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) is tasked with choosing the Republican members who will serve on the subcommittee, but has yet to announce who will represent the GOP on the panel. Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Georgia), who spearheaded a report as a subcommittee chair under the House Administration Committee last Congress is expected to lead the new subcommittee.

The new subcommittee will have subpoena power and is “authorized and directed to conduct a full and complete investigation” of the events on Jan. 6, when a pro-Trump mob stormed the Capitol to prevent the certification of Biden’s election.

It is intended to be a response to the 117th Congress’s original Jan. 6 select committee, which held high-profile public hearings and released an 845-page report after 18 months of work including reviewing emails, text messages, call logs and White House records, and conducting more than 1,000 interviews….

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Register for Free Sept. 16 Webinar from Safeguarding Democracy Project: “The Risk of Federal Interference in the 2026 Midterm Elections”

Ben Haiman, Liz Howard, Stephen Richer

The Risk of Federal Interference in the 2026 Midterm Elections

Tuesday, September 16, 12:15pm-1:15pm PT, Webinar

Register here.

Ben Haiman, UVA Center for Public Safety and Justice, Liz Howard, NYU Law Brennan Center for Justice, and Stephen Richer, Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation, Harvard Kennedy School

Richard L. Hasen, moderator (Director, Safeguarding Democracy Project, UCLA)

UCLA School of Law is a State Bar of California approved MCLE provider. This session is approved for  ​1  hour of MCLE credit. 

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Election Conspiracy Theorist Cleta Mitchell Suggests Trump Could Declare a “National Sovereignty” Crisis and Do an Emergency Federal Takeover of the Midterm Elections (He Can’t and It Would Trigger Massive Protests and the Potential End of American Democracy)

Chilling video:

Trump lawyer Cleta Mitchell says Trump may try to declare a “national sovereignty” crisis in 2026 to claim “emergency powers” over elections and override the states

People For the American Way (@peoplefor.bsky.social) 2025-09-05T18:23:54.459Z
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Ugh: “Trump’s DOJ seeks voting equipment in Missouri ahead of 2026 election”

WaPo:

A top official in President Donald Trump’s Justice Department recently sought access to voting equipment used by two Republican clerks in Missouri during the 2020 election, an unusual request from federal officials amid continued efforts by the president to malign the integrity of the nation’s voting systems.

Trump overwhelmingly won each of his three elections in Missouri, yet many of his supporters there and elsewhere continue to champion the president’s false claim that voting equipment was rigged against him in 2020 and that ballots should be tallied by hand. The Trump administration, working with an intermediary, previously sought access to voting equipment in Colorado, but the effort in Missouri appears to originate directly from the Justice Department.

The two Missouri clerks rejected the request from Andrew “Mac” Warner, a top official in the Justice Department’s civil rights division and a former West Virginia secretary of state who has embraced false claims about the 2020 election. One of the clerks cited state statutes that restrict who can access voting equipment, and the other told Warner he no longer has the Dominion Voting Systems equipment he was looking for.

“They wanted to test a machine that was used during the 2020 election,” Jasper County Clerk Charlie Davis said in an interview last week with The Washington Post. “I just told him we upgraded our machines. Our vendor has all of the old machines so we don’t have access.”.

Days later, Davis got a call from his friend Jay Ashcroft, who oversaw the 2020 and 2024 elections as Missouri’s secretary of state. Ashcroft did not describe his interest in the machines, or whether he was working with federal authorities, Davis recalled. Ashcroft, the son of former U.S. attorney general John Ashcroft, urged Davis to cooperate with the Justice Department and wondered if he would change his mindif he was given a replacement machine, according to Davis. Davis told him he no longer had the equipment….

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“Richard Bernstein: The Trump Administration’s Arguments About the National Guard Threaten the 2026 Elections”

Must-read:

Yesterday, federal District Judge Charles Breyer ruled that the Trump Administration’s federalization of the National Guard in Los Angeles to assist in immigration law enforcement violated the Posse Comitatus Act, which is 18 U.S.C. section 1385. The Posse Comitatus Act bars use of the military for law enforcement, “except in cases and under circumstances expressly authorized by the Constitution or Act of Congress.” The Trump Administration argued that the National Guard authorization statute on which it relied—10 U.S.C. section 12406(3)—is an express exception. Judge Breyer’s ruling to the contrary, at pages 26-32 of his decision, was his core holding. Although the Los Angeles deployment was not about elections, if an appellate court adopts certain arguments made by the Trump Administration in that case, such a decision could set our country on a path to military interference in the 2026 elections.

It would be criminal for any Administration to use the military to interfere with voting or vote counting in any election. In particular, 18 U.S.C. sections 592 and 593 (“Sections 592 and 593”) criminalize both having troops at the polls and military interference with voting, conducting elections, or election officers. These statutes apply to use of both the regular military and members of National Guard units “called into Federal service.” 10 U.S.C section 12405; see also 10 U.S.C. section 10106. Although Sections 592 and 593 apply only to officers and members of the military, 18 U.S.C. section 2 also makes it criminal for others—for example, a member of the Cabinet or a White House official—to aid, abet, counsel, command, induce, procure, or willfully cause violations of Sections 592 and 593. And 18 U.S.C. Section 371 makes it criminal for both military and non-military officials to conspire to violate Sections 592 and 593.

But, in the Los Angeles case, in addition to the Trump Administration’s expansive interpretation of 10 U.S.C. section 12046(3), the Administration has raised three arguments that, if adopted by the Ninth Circuit or the Supreme Court, would disable federal court enforcement of Sections 592 and 593 and thus encourage using the military to interfere in the 2026 elections. The first such Trump Administration argument is that the President has an inherent power to use the military to protect federal property, federal personnel, and federal functions and that this inherent protective power is not subject to federal statutory limitations. One can almost hear the Trump Administration arguing in 2026 that it is using the military to protect the federal function of federal elections. But Judge Breyer’s decision at 33-42 exhaustively surveyed the precedents and correctly decided that any inherent protective power to use the military domestically is subject to federal statutory restrictions. Under this ruling, no inherent protective power would override the statutory prohibitions in Sections 592 and 593 against employing the military to interfere with elections….

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“Already Pardoned by Trump, Jan. 6 Rioters Push for Compensation”

Bizarro World continues:

The rioters who attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, secured a shocking double victory this year.

President Trump granted them clemency for their crimes on his first day back in the White House, and in the months that followed, he allowed his Justice Department to purge many of the federal agents and prosecutors who sought to hold them accountable.

But even though the president has given the rioters their freedom and has taken steps toward satisfying their desire for retribution, they are asking for more. In the past several weeks, the rioters and their lawyers have pushed the Trump administration to pay them restitution for what they believe were unfair prosecutions.

On Thursday, one of the lawyers, Mark McCloskey, said during a public meeting on social media that he had recently met with top officials at the Justice Department and pitched them on a plan to create a special panel that would dole out financial damages to the rioters — much like the arrangement of a special master to award money to the victims of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

The panel, which Mr. McCloskey called a “voluntary nonjudicial resolution committee,” would consider rioters’ cases individually, he said, then assign them sums according to harms they had purportedly suffered at the hands of the federal government.

Mr. McCloskey said that he wanted the panel to be overseen by Jeanine Pirro, who runs the federal prosecutors’ office in Washington that took the lead in filing charges against nearly 1,600 rioters who joined in the Capitol attack.

“The only thing I can do as your lawyer,” he told the rioters who were at the online meeting, “is to turn your losses into dollar bills.”

Neither Ms. Pirro nor a spokesman for the Justice Department responded on Sunday to messages seeking comment on Mr. McCloskey’s plan, and it remains unclear how seriously top administration officials are taking it….

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“Pa. election conspiracy activist appointed to election integrity role at Department of Homeland Security”

WITF:

A Pennsylvania-based activist tied to President Donald Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 election is now overseeing election security matters for the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. 

Heather Honey, of Lebanon County, is serving as the deputy assistant secretary for elections integrity, a political appointment in the department’s Office of Strategy, Policy, and Plans, according to the department’s website

The office is responsible for leading, conducting and coordinating “Department-wide policy development and implementation and strategic planning,” according to its page. 

DHS did not answer questions about Honey’s responsibilities, or whether she will still be able to both work in government and hold positions in several advocacy groups that push conspiratorial election claims….

Votebeat had an earlier profile of Honey, This Pa. activist is the source of false and flawed election claims gaining traction across the country. MORE from Democracy Docket.

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Bart Gellman: “Trump’s Stunning Power Grab on Elections”

NYT oped:

To begin with, the surprise announcement and the sudden, if ambiguous, turnabout suggested once again that Mr. Trump is governing in his second term without advisers who can or even try to help him discipline his impulses. The episode exposes, as well, his renewed obsession with exerting control over election machinery. And it offers a vivid glimpse of his inclination to regard his powers as all but limitless.

No competent lawyer could have counseled Mr. Trump in good faith that “the States are merely an ‘agent’ for the Federal Government in counting and tabulating the votes,” as the president asserted in his post. Nor would such a lawyer have dreamed of advising him that state election officials “must do what the Federal Government, as represented by the President of the United States, tells them, FOR THE GOOD OF OUR COUNTRY, to do.”

Who, if anyone, told Mr. Trump that he could take command of state elections this way? Possibly he made up the authority himself. Some former Trump staff members believe he may not engage at all with questions about whether something he wants to do is lawful or something he wants to say is true. Those questions, they tell me, do not even occur to him.

Others who have worked for Mr. Trump say he seems to believe sincerely, if that is the word for it, that anything is permitted to him. Still others insist that he knows very well when he is crossing a line but presses on until obliged by an opposing force to stop.

Whatever the origins, Mr. Trump has now staked out a fundamentally illegitimate claim to authority over the conduct of American elections. He has yet to repudiate it. If he continues to press the claim, then the foundational mechanisms of our democracy may be in genuine danger. It is more than hypothetically possible that Mr. Trump, when frustrated, will try to compel the obedience of state election officials by throwing the weight of the executive branch against them.

Mr. Trump’s deployment of the National Guard in Washington and active duty Marines in Los Angeles, accompanied by threats that he might do the same in other Democratic urban strongholds, suggests another risk. Could he use some pretext to take control of voting machinery? If he dispatches troops or federal law enforcement agents to disrupt blue-city voting or ballot counting in swing states — Atlanta, say, or Milwaukee or Philadelphia — the midterm elections could be in real peril.

With or without the deployment of force, Mr. Trump’s fusillade of baseless claims about election fraud shakes public confidence in the integrity of the vote — and provides excuses for his dishonest efforts to delegitimize the outcomes. For all his political life, he has waged war against the proposition that he or his party could ever lose a legitimate election. He and his allies are preparing the ground for their next battle, in 2026….

Bart concludes with a note very consistent with my NYT oped on this topic earlier this week:

The ultimate safeguard of constitutional government is the great mass of citizen voters who decide by the tens of millions what kind of government they want. We hold the power, whatever our partisan preferences, to defend checks and balances and the rule of law. We cannot lose that power unless we surrender it.

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