More from the Yankelovich Center, this time on urban turnout, comparing presidential turnout (promising!) to mayoral turnout (sad trombone), and also noting the skew that comes with a different electorate.
Tag Archives: 2024 Election Turnout
“These Philadelphia voters went for Donald Trump in bigger numbers than ever before”
The Philadelphia Inquirer’s analysis of local turnout data reveals a few interesting tidbits:
- Nearly two-thirds of the votes for Trump in the city (90,000 votes) came from majority-white precincts, even though only a third of city precincts are majority white. In these precincts, he won nearly 30% of the vote.
- Trump did make gains with Latinos, winning “22% of the vote in majority-Latino precincts, compared with just 6% in the same areas in 2016.”
- Trump’s gains were primarily in low-income precincts: “In precincts where the poverty rate is over 35%, Trump gained 3.3 percentage points compared with 2020. Conversely, Trump saw less improvement in areas where fewer people live in poverty. In precincts where the poverty rate is below 10%, Trump gained only 0.4% over his 2020 total.”
It is much less clear that Trump made significant inroads with Black voters:
“[D]espite significant hand-wringing in the Democratic Party about Harris potentially losing support among Black men. Trump won barely 6% of the vote in majority-Black areas, an increase of 4 percentage points over his performance in those areas in 2016.”