Charles Stewart for Politico:
If Kobach’s goal was to create a super crosscheck program, he would have been disappointed, even if every state had complied. His letter requests data that are ill-suited for accurate matching. Not only are the matching methods that are likely to be employed poorly suited to producing accurate results, the Department of Homeland Security immigration dataset, which might provide some information about the presence of noncitizens on voter rolls, can’t be searched by name.
Therefore, the data requested by the commission will leave unsatisfied anyone who has a serious interest in how much double-voting or noncitizen voting there actually is in the United States. Most likely, the results of low-quality matches using the voter files that do arrive will significantly overstate the amount of double voting and voting by noncitizens. If a poor match occurs, the list maintenance programs of the states will be unfairly impugned, lowering the confidence of voters for no good reason. This is why no one I have talked to who runs elections, Democrat or Republican, is happy with Kobach’s request….
Kobach is a controversial figure in election administration, which is illustrated by the negative reactions from his colleagues on both sides of the aisle to his request. This negative reaction is not evidence, as Trump’s recent tweet suggests, that the states are trying to hide something. Quite the opposite. There’s a large political middle in the election administration community that recognizes the value of database matching for the purpose of maintaining the integrity of the voter registration system.
Database matching protocols can be designed so that they comply with the safeguards of the National Voter Registration Act, thus keeping the path to the ballot box clear for all eligible voters while closing the door to ineligibles. The process can be effective if good data, good protocols, and attention to privacy are accounted for from the start. The election administration community will be watching carefully to see if the Pence Commission can learn from its stumble out of the gate.
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