“Why did Trump win? More whites — and fewer blacks — actually voted.”

Bernard L. Fraga, Sean McElwee, Jesse Rhodes and Brian Schaffner for the Monkey Cage:

Using data from the voter file vendor Catalist and information from the U.S. Census Bureau, we examine the change in turnout rates for different racial/ethnic groups between 2012 and 2016. Black turnout declined dramatically; white turnout increased noticeably; and Latino and Asian American turnout went up even more. In the key swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, those shifts were especially strong. How strong? Without those shifts in turnout from various racial and ethnic groups, these pivotal states might have gone not to Trump but to Clinton — giving Clinton an electoral college victory.

Michael McDonald suggests caution with these data, at least as to Michigan.


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